We are currently twelve days away from the NFL Scouting Combine as of this writing, and I will be the first to admit that in a way, releasing rankings for any position seems strange before the Combine. There is always someone at the Combine who shines above the rest. Guaranteed. And I think that the running back position may be one to keep any eye on. For the record, there's no Adrian Peterson in this draft. That's an unfair comparison of course, but the point stands, there's no ridiculously talented running back prospect in this draft. Not yet. That may change once numbers are assigned to a back's explosive speed and agility.
Two notes about the Running Back position. The decline of the running back position really saddens me. I love watching guys like Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles, and Lesean McCoy play. But those types of backs just aren't coming out of college right now. The so-called “Bell Cow” back that shoulders the load is disappearing, with more and more teams working with a “running back by committee” approach. Which in addition to being a pain in the butt for Fantasy Football owners, showcases the trend away from the running game in the NFL. That's why people are throwing for 5,000 yards, because the running game isn't producing the same explosive and dynamic players that we used to see. Although I'm optimistic about Eddie Lacy and Zac Stacy. But that's beyond the point. The other thing is that I would be shocked to see any running back taken in the first round. Eddie Lacy won the Rookie of the Year award, and he was a second rounder. And with the fiasco known as Trent Richardson being taken at #3 overall two years ago, no one is going to risk taking a running back day 1. It's just not happening. Maybe if Melvin Gordon keeps up his improvements, that may change in another year or two.
However, by no means am I suggesting that no running back will produce in the NFL. I am just stating that the running back positional value is incredibly low, and there's no prospect this year that forces GMs to change their minds. Anyway, quick reminders for everyone:
How it works-
I will start each of these posts by examining which teams need the players in question. By in large this is only going to be teams that are in need of a new starting player, not necessarily a backup.
For each player I will provide analysis, statistics from the 2013-2014 season, and a general idea of where I believe they will be taken in the draft.
Things to keep in mind-
The rankings that I post here are based on my observations of the player's statistics, game tape, and any rumors that leak out to the general public. I make no claims to have insider knowledge into the draft process or any teams overall plan this is merely my own ranking system if I were evaluating these player for any given NFL team.
As with any ranking system, it is all relative. Scouting reports by professionals can differ greatly for the same individual for the same game. So my rankings by no means the definitive order.
I love football. I love the NFL, and college football, and I love sharing what I love with other people. And that is the ultimate point in creating these rankings: To share what I know about the players who will be a part of my favorite football event of the year, namely the draft. Whether you love the draft process as I do, just want to know a little bit more about some of the top college players outside of those at Wisconsin, or are simply interested in who your favorite team could be looking at in May, I want these rankings to be informative.
With that, let's get down to business.
Teams looking to take a running back in 2014:
Cleveland Browns: This is actually really hilarious, given that Cleveland was the one that drafted Trent Richardson two years ago. Now, they are rolling with Chris Ogbonnaya and Willis McGahee. Excuse my skepticism that either of them can be the answer for the Browns. In fairness, Edwin Baker looked alright in the last three weeks, but I'm still not sold. Here's how pathetic the Browns rushing attack was last year. In playing 3 games, Edwin Baker tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns with 2. They had a total of 4. The Browns will have to find some kind of rushing attack if they want to alleviate the pressure which will inevitably fall on their next quarterback otherwise.
Jacksonville Jaguars: This is assuming that Maurice Jones-Drew leaves. He might not, but even so, he looked terrible last year. He'll be 29 next year, and in this past season, his yards per carry average was a full yard lower than his career average, and he topped 100 yards once. It's hard to see him getting the payday he expected a couple years back. In any case, the Jaguars as a team had the second lowest yards per carry average in the league, just ahead of the Ravens, whose line was abysmal.
Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden is a free agent this year and is constantly injured. Rashad Jennings did an ok job filling in for him, but he's going to be 29 this upcoming year, so I'm not anticipating ridiculous growth for him. Besides, the Raiders are rebuilding basically every other position already, does it matter if they add one more need to the team wish list? I swear I'm not trying to hate on the Raiders. Take an objective look at the roster, and it really begs the question of how they won four games.
Atlanta Falcons: Yes, Steven Jackson is locked up for two more years. But he was injured and did not look great. Jackson was brought in to be the last piece to a championship caliber offense. Based on last year, they may have a bit of retooling to do, and it would not be surprising to see him get cut.
Arizona Cardinals: Rashard Mendenhall is going to be a free agent, and while Andre Ellington did a good job as a backup last year, I don't know that he can be the feature back for the Cardinals. It could be a good idea to at least draft someone capable of supplementing Ellington.
Tennessee Titans: I'm only including this because I think Chris Johnson might get cut. He has said he's not happy with his role on the team, and he's owed $10 million next season. Given that Ken Wisenhunt prefers a little more physicality to his running backs, Johnson could be on the way out. If that is the case, then I doubt Shonne Green can be the primary back. He tried it in New York, with poor results.
Running Backs:
1. Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
Height: 5'10, Weight: 196 lbs.
2013 Stats: 349 Carries, 1885 yards, 5.4 YPC, 19 TDs, 26 Rec, 173 yards, 1 Rec TD
Ka'Deem Carey is ridiculous. Consider this. In games he played (He did not play in the game against Northern Arizona at the start of the year), the last time Carey did not rush for 100 yards in a game was November 3rd of 2012. That's 16 consecutive games with over 100 yards, and since he became the starting back for the Wildcats, he has missed 100 yards just three times.
Needless to say, Carey's stats are impressive. And in fairness, the Pac-12 is not as talented as defenses in the SEC. But the Pac-12 is by no means full of slouches, and regardless of where Carey puts up the numbers, dominating at the college level is the most important aspect of determining a players capabilities at the next level.
Beyond Carey's raw numbers, watching him on tape shows that he has an excellent skill set for the NFL. He has great speed and elusiveness, but he's also a physical runner, capable of breaking tackles and running over defenders. His balance is phenomenal, and his acceleration matches his speed. I remember watching a play against Washington State where Carey jumps out of a tackle, has to hop on one foot since the defender grabbed the other, but he regains his bearings almost immediately, and with a burst of speed, he's gone. What's more is that in addition to his speed and quick feet, I believe he can stand up to an NFL workload. He carried the ball over 300 times each of the past two years at Arizona, and in those two seasons, he only ever missed the game against Northern Arizona, but that was not injury related.
I do have a few concerns though. First, there were a few times that Carey did not exhibit great field vision. I saw a couple of plays where if he had bounced out to the outside, he could have had a huge run, but instead he plowed forward for a small gain. This was not a consistent trend though, it is merely something to keep in mind. Also, there is a bit of off field concern for Carey, he sat out the game against Northern Arizona for an off field incident involving misdemeanor assault, but the charges were dropped.
What it ultimately comes down to is that Carey seems to be the most complete back in the upcoming draft class. Of course, everything comes down to personal preferences with running backs in the draft, so while he may not be the first one off the board, he would be if I were a GM looking for a running back. In any case, I look for him to go on Day 2, given the low value placed on running backs, but probably in the second round.
Final Decision: Round 2
2. Tre Mason, Auburn
Height: 5'10, Weight: 210 lbs.
2013 Stats: 317 Carries, 1816 yards, 5.7 YPC, 23 TDs, 12 Rec, 163 yards, 1 Rec TD
Mason comes in riding a huge wave of hype. But it's deserved. Watching Mason play, you can see a physical runner with great vision and fantastic speed. The most impressive part of Mason's statistics is that he actually got better as the season progressed. In his first 8 games, he eclipsed 100 yards three times. However, from there on, he ran for over 100 games in six straight games, including 304 yards against Missouri in the SEC championship.
I am encouraged by the fact that over his time at Auburn, he averaged 5.8, 5.9, and 5.7 YPC, indicating a certain amount of consistency, but it does bother me, his relative lack of 100+ games. Last year he did it just 3 times, but he did end up with over 1000 yards, a bright spot on a miserable team.
Moving on to the tape though, his great acceleration is the first thing that I see. He has speed and shifty feet, not to the same extent that Carey does, but it is still present. He's got power as well, able to shake off a couple of defenders, but it isn't his calling card. What I love watching him is the acceleration and vision. He gassed defenders on more than a couple of plays against Missouri because his speed jumped up so quickly. He is great at following the blocks, and hits the holes with speed and accuracy.
One other quick thing I noticed which is underrated aspect in running backs is his blocking ability. He threw some great blocks in the running game, and he had an amazing block in pass protection against C.J. Mosely of Alabama, one of the top linebackers in the country.
Like Carey, although Tre Mason is under 6'0, I think he should be able to hold up in the NFL. He has more weight on him than Carey, and he ran the ball 317 times, against some truly physical and tough defenses in the SEC. The other encouraging aspect of his durability is that as the game progresses, Mason does not slow down. If anything, he gets stronger. This certainly contributes to his late season surge, but it is good to note and a trait not often see in running backs.
The issues with Mason is that he does not have the same history of success as Carey does, and that he has more weight than Carey, but lacks the same ability to shake off defenders with elusiveness. At the same time, I saw Mason as a better blocker than Carey, but Carey is a better receiving back, giving him another threat level for whatever team takes him. Either way, I believe that Tre Mason is extremely talented and should perform well at the next level. He should be taken on Day 2 as well, I think there is a chance that he falls into round 3, but if I had to guess I would say he will be selected sometime in the middle part of round 2.
Final Decision: Round 2
3. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
Height: 5'10, Weight: 210 lbs
2013 Stats: 158 Carries, 1177 yards, 7.4 YPC, 11 TDs, 0 Rec
Full disclosure. I was shocked to learn that Seastrunk weighs 210 lbs. Watching him on tape, he looks much lighter than that. He's quick on his feet, probably the fastest back in the group, and can explode into the second level once he clears the first line. He has a fantastic skill set, with quick feet, insane top speed, impressive acceleration, and his vision is incredible. There are a few concerns with him, namely his durability and production despite his impressive talent, but I will get into that later. First I need to rave more about the great parts of his game.
Seastrunk will jump out on tape immediately. His speed is the first thing you notice, and the second has to be the spring in his step. He is incredibly quick, but watching his feet can be truly amazing. His shiftiness, balance, and overall elusiveness all come from the quick twitch in his feet. I really love his vision too. He sees the field exceptionally well and can use his change of direction to turn around defenders, and then blows past them with his speed. In combining speed, vision, and elusiveness, Seastrunk is top of the class.
Seastrunk actually reminds me of Giovani Bernard from last year. He's a little smaller, but incredibly fast and dynamic. But here's the issue with that comparison. Bernard was better in college. He ran it more, produced more yards, and he also was involved in the passing game, something that Seastrunk never did this past year.
However, with everything being said, I have questions about Seastunk. I am not convinced that he can be a primary back in the NFL, he only ran the ball 158 times, and he missed two games due to injury, and after his game against West Virginia, his production dropped. After West Virginia, where he gained 172 yards, he surpassed 100 yards three times, and never more than 117, against UCF.
On top of that, his physicality is not the same as Mason or Carey. He cannot run over defenders as well as they can, but he can move around them much more easily. One other thing I noticed was that he never gave up on plays. Which is a sign of strong determination, but it is also a bit of a negative. He always looked for the big play, to break a big run, and sometimes, it cost him yardage as he tried to reverse the field. For what it's worth, trying to do too much is what cost Adrian Peterson earlier in the season. All I am saying is that even the best players can have it come back to bite them when they don't take what is given to them and try to stretch a play out.
I like Seastrunk. A lot. He's superbly talented, and I think he will be a great addition to whatever NFL offense decides to pick him up. I am not sold that he can be the primary back, but if he can, he will probably end up as the best running back from the class. Some team will love his athleticism, and will end up drafting him on Day 2, in my opinion. Where on day two is completely variable, as Bernard ended up being the first back taken. All a player needs is for one team to fall in love with him, and there's a good chance it happens once he puts numbers to his athletic qualities at the NFL Combine. As it stands, I would take him in Round 2, most likely mid to late in the round.
Final Decision: Round 2
4. Bishop Sankey, Washington
Height: 5'10, Weight: 203 lbs.
2013 Stats: 327 Carries, 1870 yards, 5.7 YPC, 20 TDs, 28 Rec, 304 yards, 1 Rec TD
First and foremost, Sankey is a good running back, and he does everything fairly well, but I have not seen him do anything exceptionally well. Before I get into my analysis of the game tape, I want to talk about what his numbers say. Over the past two years as a starter, Sankey has yet to miss a game, and has failed to surpass 100 yards 10 times, however he failed to reach 50 yards just twice. He also failed to score a touchdown just three times.
Impressive consistency and durability is apparent from Sankey's numbers, along with an ability to flash and put up bigger numbers. He also has experience working in the passing game, although he did not consistently factor into that part of Washington's offense. Combine that with decent pass blocking ability in game tape, and it is easy to classify Sankey as a successful, multifaceted running back.
Moving to the tape, as I said before, Sankey does everything well, but does not do many things exceptionally. His best traits are his overall speed and his field vision. His speed is not on the same level as Lache Seastrunk, but it is more than enough to outpace defenders. As for his vision, he can see the entire field, and was able to reverse the length of the field and gained huge yardage because of it. However, one thing that Sankey does not do exceptionally well is accelerate. He has a great top speed, but he does not reach it often, unless he breaks out into the open field. In a way, it is a good thing that Sankey has a second gear to shift into once he does break free, but it still takes some time to reach that top speed.
Ultimately, I like Sankey for his skill set, but there are other backs in the draft class that I consider to be superior. I think he has a good chance to succeed as a feature back in the NFL, but he may need to improve things such as his elusiveness to reach the higher tier of NFL running backs. I would probably wait until the third round to draft Sankey, but as I have said before, teams all have different things they want when it comes to running backs, so while it is possible for him to be drafted in the second round, that is probably his ceiling.
Final Decision: Round 3
5. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
Height: 6'0, Weight: 242 lbs.
2013 Stats: 208 Carries, 1521 yards, 7.3 YPC, 15 TDs, 16 Rec, 147 yards, 3 Rec TDs
Have you ever gone to a movie, and everyone walks out raving about how great it is, but you are just thinking “That was ok, I guess,”? That is how I feel about Carlos Hyde. So many other draft experts talk about how excellent Carlos Hyde is, and how he should be taken in the first round, and I just do not understand why everyone loves him after watching his tape.
In fairness to him, his numbers are very impressive. The 7.3 YPC is second only to Seastunk and Hyde ended with more yards and carries than Seastrunk. Throw in the fact that Hyde amassed 1521 yards even after missing the first three games makes it even more impressive. However, I think there were some additional factors involved in Hyde's numbers. Namely, his quarterback Braxton Miller was an excellent runner as well last year, and I think the Big Ten defenses really ran into issues trying to defend both of them, and as the tape proves, if a defender is not ready to take down Hyde, it usually ends poorly for the defense. Also, when Hyde played against Clemson, the only non-Big Ten team he faced, his YPC dropped to 4.5.
Despite Hyde's larger, tougher frame, I am actually not all that convinced he can stand up to an NFL workload. 208 carries was the most he had ever had in his college career, and NFL defenses are going to be a lot tougher and stronger than what he faced in college. He certainly has the frame to succeed, but he has not had to carry the ball as often as I would like to prove his durability.
Now here's the problem with Hyde. I cannot see any kind of variable skill set in him. He is big, and physical, and can truck defenders. But that is about it. His top speed is nothing impressive, as linebackers are able to chase him down from time to time, and he rarely if ever beats a member of the secondary in a footrace. He makes attempts to be shifty, side-stepping as he approaches a defender, but then he just charges forward anyway. He breaks tackles because he keeps his legs moving, which is great, but a fair amount of his broken tackles were because defenders took bad angles to try and tackle him.
Look, I swear I am not trying to hate on Hyde because he is from Ohio State. If someone sees something I am missing from his game, please tell me. But based on what I can see, I just don't think that he is a great running back. His overall production still puts him at #5 on the list, but I cannot reasonably say that Hyde is the best running back in the class. There are plenty of comparisons to Eddie Lacy, but even that is off base to me. Watching Eddie Lacy in college, Lacy had more athleticism, speed, and strength than anything Hyde exhibited in college. Maybe some NFL team will take him in the first round, but if they do, I will be shaking my head the whole time. I would not take him until the third round, but it is perfectly possible that he goes in the second round.
Final Decision: Round 3
That does it for my top 5 running back rankings, next week I will post my top 5 wide receivers.
By Mike Veldhuis
