NBA Over/Under: Western Conference

  • Post Author
    by Sports director
  • Post Date
    Wed Oct 19 2022

By: David Giardino

The NBA season is here and Vegas has put out its over/under for each team's wins for the upcoming season. Here's how I think each Western conference team will do. If you want to see my predictions for the Eastern Conference teams check out my other article.

Dallas Mavericks (48.5): Under

Starting off this list with a real head scratcher. Luka Doncic is my favorite to win MVP this year and I like the talent surrounding him, particularly the move to get Christian Wood. However, I think the West is just too good to get 50 wins this year. Last year they were able to get up to 52 but with a healthy Clippers, a healthy Nuggets, and improved Timberwolves and Pelicans teams it will be hard to get back to 50 with a similar roster talent wise.

Denver Nuggets (49.5): Over

This is the lock of the West to me. Now obviously that relies on Jamal Murray's health which is a mystery but I think this roster is much improved from last year. The Nuggets won 48 games last year with no Murray or Michael Porter Jr. That roster has since been improved with addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and the further development of Bones Hyland and Zeke Nnaji. I think there is a good chance that Denver, if healthy, can be the #1 seed in the West this year.

Golden State Warriors (51.5): Over

There is no reason the Warriors can not and should not repeat as champions this year. Not only did they retain all the important pieces from that championship team, signing Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole to massive extensions, they saw a lot of improvement from guys like Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman, and Moses Moody. This team is really good, they have a ton of talent, they have 5 or 6 guys that can beat you on any given night, and they have the best system in the NBA. This is the most realistic first seed in the West this year and will without a doubt hit 50 wins.

Houston Rockets (23.5): Over

I actually do not think that the Rockets are one of the bottom two teams in the west this year. They had probably the best draft in the NBA this year getting Jabari Smith and Tari Eason. I would watch out for this Rockets team to be more in the 13th seed range rather than at the dead bottom of the West.

Los Angeles Clippers (52.5): Under

Now this is not my prediction of how good of a team I think the Clippers will be, but they are going to be a very cautious team this year. Both their stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are injury prone and therefore the Clippers will be very careful with them. This is a team that is ok being a mid seed in the playoffs if it means they are healthy going in. I really like them I just don't see them finishing as a top 2 seed in the regular season.

Los Angeles Lakers (45.5) Under:

This one makes me so incredibly happy to write. This Lakers roster is BAD, it has so little talent it's humorous. I would put my life savings on this line if this roster was set in stone for the year. I mean realistically Anthony Davis only plays 40 games this year no matter how healthy he is, which means they are going to have to go into their laughably bad depth. LeBron James is great no doubt, and I will never say anything about him slowing down because I don't know if that is possible honestly, but this Lakers team addressed none of their problems from last season. And the worst part of this is, Darvin Ham was a great hire, but it won't lead to wins.

Memphis Grizzlies (48.5): Over

Memphis won a staggering 56 games last year. I don't think they hit that mark, but the foundation of that team is still there and is only getting better. I look for Jaren Jackson Jr to take a big step this year, and really evolve into one of the best defensive bigs in the league, Ja Morant is a bonafide superstar, and Desmond Bane has turned into a really good 3rd option. This team will not replicate 56, but having them go over 50 is a pretty good bet.

Minnesota Timberwolves (48.5): Over

Much like Cleveland in the East, this is going to be the most improved team in the west. The biggest problem with this team last year is they had no interior presence, and what did they do this offseason? They added the best rim protector of the last decade. Now that was a great move but don't look past the other ones they made. Kyle Anderson is the perfect player for that team to come off the bench, and I am really excited to see the development of Jaden McDaniels and most importantly Anthony Edwards. This is another team that I think will push 50 wins.

New Orleans Pelicans (44.5): Over

New Orleans is another vastly improved team this year. The return of Zion Williamson to the team that took the 1st seed Suns to 6 hard fought games in the playoffs last year should be amazing. A lineup of C.J Mccollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, Zion, and Jonas Valanciunas, with Trey Murphy and Jose Alvarado coming off the bench is dangerous. I am excited to see small ball lineups with Zion at the 5, and anything else Willie Green wants to do. I don't think this is a 50 win team but they will not be in the play-in this year.

Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5): Under

As a Thunder fan this absolutely pains me to say, but it's true. This young core is really good, they are still a bottom 3 team in the West. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to have all-star numbers, and Josh Giddey is going to be much improved, but with no Chet Holmgren for the majority of the year, this team will not win more than 24 games this year. All I can hope for is Victor Wembanyama to come and save us.

Phoenix Suns (52.5): Under

I do not know what is going on in Phoenix. Whether it has to do with the Robert Sarver drama or unrest about how last season ended, this is not a cohesive team. I will not go as far as to say they're bad, or even mediocre, but they aren't a top team in the West anymore. This is not a team you want to see in the playoffs but I see 4 teams that have a better shot at 50 wins then the Suns.

Portland Trail Blazers (39.5): Under

Last season 40 wins would have put the Trail Blazers in the play-in as the 10 seed, which is a very possible future. I just do not think this team has the depth to be a playoff team. I really like their top 5, but the health issues surrounding that team make me want to put them under teams like the Lakers, Pelicans, Mavericks and even the Sacramento Kings who I will get to in a minute. The Blazers are stuck in a weird middle ground. The worst place to be in basketball. It is time to trade Damian Lillard, blow it up, build around Anfernee Simons and restart.

Sacramento (33.5): Over

Is playoff basketball finally back in Sacramento? Probably not, but play-in basketball might be a realistic outcome for this team. I feel like I was one of the few people that wanted them to pick Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey but I think it was the perfect pick. I mean there is the talent on this roster to beat 33.5 wins for sure and dare I say make the play in. All I'll say is that I will be tuning in to Kings games for the first time in a couple years.

San Antonio Spurs (22.5): Under

Now we have come across the worst team in the West. The Spurs did the brave (but smart) thing last offseason and fully blew the team up this offseason. The truth is last year's team was not going anywhere, and the fact that the Spurs were anywhere near the play-in is a testament to the greatness of Gregg Popovich. I wish the Spurs luck on their rebuild.

Utah Jazz (24.5): Over

This will not be by much, obviously, this roster is bad. The only reason I put this is because I think the Thunder and Spurs are worse. But do not get me wrong, Danny Ainge and the Jazz will be fully entering the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.