By Aniruddh Nambudiri

Christmas came early for the most annoying people you know, baseball fans! I still believe in the magic of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Despite all of the steroid non-inductions, controversies and accusations of it getting weaker as the years go on (which aren’t true), I still love it. It helps us recognize incredible players as what they are, incredible. When I saw Todd Helton and Larry Walker stand there for their inductions, that’s what made me a baseball fan. I saw the community and the true happiness they had for being honored by their peers and the people who watched them play. Unlike other hall of fames though, you can be great and not get in. You can have maybe the most iconic bat flip, one could argue the most popular home run of all time, and fall of the ballot with only a few votes. You can be nicknamed ‘Godzilla’ and no one will even think you are worthy of a vote. It is brutal, but it makes this place even more special.

Let us get to what might be the most stacked ballot I have had as a baseball fan; I joined this sport in 2020 and this has so many of the names whose highlights I saw and made me a baseball fan. They all deserve respect. There is a world where everyone on this ballot gets a vote. Each player will get four sections. A traditional case, a sabermetric one, a use of my brand new Stathead (genuinely best investment I have ever made) and then my final verdict on them.

(Also I write this article as if I have a hall of fame ballot vote. It works better if you just act like I do even though I am just a college student.)

Bobby Abreu

Traditional

Bobby Abreu might be one of the most hated stars of the 2000s. Despite being a pillar of consistency, Abreu was despised by Phillies fans and that shines in how he was voted for in traditional voting. He had a very famous Home Run Derby performance in one of his only 2 all-star games. He also only had one Gold Glove and Silver Slugger each, despite all his tools. Traditionally, his case relies on his counting numbers. He had over 2400 hits and stole 400 bases. He also walked a lot, with a career total of 1476. He is one of 4 players to have all of those, alongside Bonds, Joe Morgan and Rickey Henderson.

Sabermetric

Abreu’s case, however, has never been a traditional one. Sabermetric people have driven him to heights that he probably would not have reached in a previous era. Abreu has 60 bWAR which is kind of the mythical number stat guys need to think “huh is he a hall of famer?” He also has a career 136 OPS+ which means for his career he was 36% better than an average hitter. Abreu also represents one of many five-tool athletes on this ballot. From ages 24 to 34, Abreu was a 3-4-5 hitter (.300 AVG, .400 OBP, .500 SLG), a number which basically defined Larry Walker’s case for the hall of fame. Though Abreu was not a statistically good fielder, he played a solid corner outfield for very long. His streak of 20-20 seasons, though, is what might give him an edge.

Stathead

Abreu has 9 seasons of 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in a season, and this goes from when he was 25 to age 36 when he was on the Los Angeles Angels. The only people with more such seasons are the Bonds, Barry and Bobby.

Verdict

Though an interesting vote, I personally would leave him off my ballot. With how I vote, I want a bit of both a traditional and statistical case, which Abreu kind of does not provide.

Carlos Beltran

Traditional

I am just mad! Why couldn’t you have just made things easy Carlos??? You have such an incredible traditional and statistical case and you would have made it on the first ballot, if only you did not join the Astros in 2017 and suggest their sign stealing scandal.

Look, have we been mean to him? Absolutely. He should not have lost his managerial job because of it. It was in the past and should not have cost him that. 435 home runs is a lot, especially as a center fielder. A game changer in multiple deadlines, an awesome defensive player, a sneaky speed guy and just so much fun to watch. People forget at 35, he was brought in to replace Albert Pujols by the Cardinals and he still delivered for them. Rookie of the year, top 5 in MVP voting once, 9 all-star appearances. If only he did not introduce a system to finally get his well-deserved ring, he would already be in.

Sabermetric

A center fielder who could do everything and hit 435 career home runs? With 70 bWAR and a higher JAWS than Andre Dawson? A statistically top 10 CF of all time. His transition from a speed-contact guy to a true power hitter is also a great statistical case. His efficiency at stealing bases is also unrivalled, 312 steals to only 49 caught stealings. That is more than enough for many.

Stathead

The only career Center Fielder with 400+ HRs, 300+ Stolen Bases and 30+ fielding runs is Carlos Beltran. Basically, Beltran is the only true center fielder in history to be a power-speed center fielder whilst still maintaining the defense required at the position.

Verdict

I do not care about the Houston thing. More people have cheated in worse ways and have been worse people about it. My vote goes to Beltran. (1/10)

Mark Buehrle

Traditional

Mark Buehrle. The true Chad workhorse inning eater master. The craft lefty who drank beers, saved world series games and threw a perfect game and no hitter all hung over. A true icon. One of my favorite pitchers of all time.

Mark Buehrle slowly gets more respect as time goes on and I love that. He was truly one of the few pitchers who would work in a pitch clock era because he threw pitches at maybe the fastest rate of anyone even in this era. A 2015 36 year old Buehrle pitched games like a madman. He has 200 wins, qualified and pitched over 195 innings each full year of his career and won 4 gold gloves with one of the most iconic defensive plays in MLB history. He pitched 2 no hitters, including a perfect game and was one of the most liked teammates of all time. Was he ever exceptional? No, but I do not care. He does not even have 2000 strikeouts. He is not really a traditional hall of famer, but man how can you hate Mark Buehrle? Number retired by the White Sox, deservedly so.

Sabermetric

Ok look, are there more statistically impressive pitchers? Yes. Again, Buehrle was not a strikeout guy. His career FIP is a 4.11 but man, he ate innings. Statistical people LOVE people who eat innings. After the year 2000, Buehrle is one of only 11 people to face 1000 batters in a season, and only one of 9 to have an ERA 20% better than the league average in that year. Buehrle also has 59.1 bWAR, extremely impressive stuff for him.

Stathead

The only man with 15 or more seasons of 195 innings in a season is Mark Buehrle. Somehow, they were all of quality as well, with the lowest ERA+ in all of those being 95.

Verdict

With how stacked this ballot is, I might not be able to use my strategic vote on him. If I have space, he is the first guy I am voting for. I love Mark Buehrle!

Note from later: I have enough space, Mark Buehrle gets my vote! (2/10)

Carlos Gonzalez

Traditional

Look, he has no shot but damn man, its awesome to see CarGo on the ballot. He was a really good Rockie and continued the lineage of many other really good Rockies. His 2010 3^rd place in the MVP finish is an incredible season and definitely the best moment of his career in the Bigs. Beautiful swing, an awesome player to watch, absolutely no chance he stays on the ballot or gets a vote sadly.

Sabermetric

From 2010 to 2013, CarGo had an OPS+ of 133 and was a consistent 20-20 season in those years. The .311 batting average in that span is what’s most impressive about his career. He only has 24.4 career WAR but again, who cares. He made the ballot, that’s a massive achievement.

Stathead

CarGo’s 2010 is one of only 7 seasons with a batting average of .335, 30 Home runs and 25 stolen bases. A contact, power and speed season in all ways.

Verdict

No chance he stays on or gets a vote sadly, but so happy he made it on the ballot. Massive achievement in its own way

Curtis Granderson

Traditional

Grandy Man was one of the most iconic names of the early 2010s. A consistent power bat at center field who played for both New York teams and was really good for both. He had 2 40 HR seasons and acted as the spark plug for many great teams. He is also the first Brewer on this list for the Wisconsin sports fans reading. He has over 300 career home runs and 2 top 10 MVP finishes. Though he struck out a lot, he resembles the first power only guy on the ballot. He is also known as one of baseball’s nice guys. He was a leader of the MLBPA, considered one of the league’s friendliest players, a Roberto Clemente award recipient and someone who actively contributes to charities to this day. He will definitely have some New York sports fans voting for him, but probably not enough to keep him on the ballot.

Sabermetric

Granderson has 47 career bWAR which might surprise people. You might think someone like him who was a 6’1 heavy strikeout guy was a bad defender but he was not. He has 38 fielding runs for his career with a DRS of 25 at CF. That is really good! He also has 2 seasons of an OPS over .900 along with those 40 home run years and also 2 years of leading the league in triples. Grandy Man was a sneaky toolsy outfielder even though his reputation as a power hitter is what is notable. Statistically, a hall of very good player.

Stathead

Granderson is one of 6 career CFs to have 300 home runs and 35+ fielding runs. What this basically says is he is in an exclusive club of power hitters who could definitely play the position at an above-average to good level.

Verdict

I mean I won’t vote for him, but congrats to the Grandy Man! Definitely deserves to be on the ballot

Felix Hernandez

Traditional

This is where I might have to throw objectivity out the window. I am a Mariners fan and this is King Felix man. This is the guy who got me into baseball. I literally mimicked my windup to make it start like his. I throw a changeup because he threw one of the most devastating changeups that I just wished we had statcast data on. Traditional stats I mean. He had over 2500 strikeouts despite all the injuries in his career. He only had 169 wins because he was a Mariner in their worst time but during that time, he was their undoubted star. Their King. He also represents the first major award winner on the ballot, 2010 Cy Young award. The first time voters ignored useless pitcher wins to acknowledge that the best pitcher in the league might have played on a losing roster. He wasn’t an all-star, they lost 100 games that year, he won the Cy Young in an incredibly dominant season. ERA leader twice in his career, averaged 226 strikeouts a season from 2009 to 2014 and pitched perhaps the greatest perfect game of all time, where the ball did not leave the infield the entire game. He does not have the longevity which might make him struggle, but it’s the King. An icon of early 2010s baseball and maybe the best pitcher of that era. That might give him an outside shot if we are going to re evaluate the pitcher due to innings restrictions and the death of the traditional starter.

Sabermetric

Felix’s 2010 was the first true win for the statistical community. Led the league in WAR with a 13-12 record and people finally recognized the first stat and not the other. Felix actually has a higher fWAR at 54 due to his FIP and having to be a Mariner with Mike Morse at shortstop. Felix also had les than 1 home run allowed per 9 innings for his career. He also has a Strikeout-to-Walk rate of 3.14 which is insane. Felix is a sabermetric darling even with his steep drop off and someone who represents a fun case due to his traditional and sabermetric merit.

Stathead

Felix was the best AL pitcher from the years 2009 to 2015. Only Kershaw is ahead of him in the league, a guy who is a guaranteed first ballot hall of famer the moment he is eligible. He is ahead of Greinke, Lester, Sale, Scherzer, Buehrle, Sabathia and Verlander on this list

Verdict

Do I think he gets in? No. Breaks my heart to say that.

Its Felix though man. The King. Literally my favorite pitcher of all time. Of course he has a vote just out of pure sentimentality. (3/10)

Torii Hunter

Traditional

I am actually surprised Torii Hunter has remained on this ballot. He seems to have enough love from off shoots of both the sabermetric and traditional voters, both for very weird reasons. Torii Hunter has 9 gold gloves and over 350 home runs. He also has nearly 500 doubles and 2 silver slugger trophies. He has a reputation as one of the best fielders of the 2000s traditionally due to his massive arm and robbery plays, most famously against Barry Bonds in the all-star game. He also has 2400 hits for his career. He will not make the hall as he does not have an MVP or a long stretch of incredible play, but he gets some love as a fun player and what traditional think is a sabermetric darling.

Sabermetric

So….what if I told you Torii Hunter was not incredible defensively? If anything, he was just above average. He only has a career defensive WAR of 4.0, under names like Harrison Bader and Trent Grisham, people who might not have the best defensive reputation. He actually compares quite favourably to Curtis Granderson defensively, but one was called a lanky mess and the other won 9 gold gloves. Torii actually gets a lot of flowers for his offense amongst statistics people. A career 110 OPS+ and 10 seasons with an OPS+ above that. He also has 50.7 career bWAR which is what a lot of people might point to when voting for someone like Torii.

Stathead

I mean he is one of only 19 players to have a season of 2.0 dWAR and a league average of better OPS.

Verdict

Surprised he is still on the ballot. With his trend, I think he might drop off this year.

Adam Jones

Traditional

So awesome he made it on! Adam Jones was one of Baltimore’s star players in what might be a golden age in the mid 2010s. In the revolving door of Cruz, Trumbo and other power hitters, Jones remained the stud centerfielder and sparkplug for the tean. 4 gold gloves and a silver slugger at center field, Jones might not even be most known for his incredibly underrated MLB career. In the 2017 World Baseball Classic, Jones patrolled center field and robbed Manny Machado of a homerun that would have knocked out the US in a tournament they ended up winning. Ultimately, that’s what he will be known for and though he has no real case traditionally, the moments are what you will remember with him.

Sabermetric

Not much either. Again for someone with 4 gold gloves, he had a negative defensive WAR for his career. OBP of .310 is also not great and he only had 32.6 bWAR. A lot more than you would think, but still not much. Jones is a fun pick honestly, he was a cool player and a nice guy, this is more a recognition for a great career than people calling him a hall of famer.

Stathead

I mean, Adam Jones is the only outfielder to have a 2.0 WAR season every year from 2008 to 2015. A really consistent center fielder

Verdict

No, but awesome vibes.

Andruw Jones

Traditional

…….

Look. Andruw Jones and his traditional case is as simple as “Imagine the greatest defensive CF of all time also hit 434 home runs.” It is everything around it that has made it so he is not in. He fell off after the age of 30 and it sort of became this reputation that he did not care. He did though, He went to Japan and won a city reeling from the Fukushima earthquake their first Japan Series title where he played really well. Father time just caught up to him really quick.

But then there is the allegations against him. Look, I am not going to get into it. I will just keep it at it being the reason I would not vote for him.

Sabermetric

He is the greatest defensive center fielder of all time. Over 235 fielding runs is insane, he has 10 gold gloves in center field. He has 60 bWAR. He hit 50 home runs in a season where he put up 2.0 dWAR which is insanely impressive. The only season of its kind.

Stathead

He is the only player in MLB history with over 230 fielding runs and over 430 home runs. The true power and fielding machine

Verdict

I would not. Lets just move on.

Ian Kinsler

Traditional

Kinsler is a weird one. He does not have 2000 hits which is the magical number you need to be traditionally even looked at. Yet his reputation precedes him. He was one of many century defining second basemen and one of three we will get to on the ballot itself. If comparing all three, traditionally Kinsler might fall somewhere between 2^nd and 3^rd. He has 2 gold gloves and 4 all-star appearances, but does not really have the standout seasons many might look at. He does lead the Rangers all time in steals and has multiple 30-30 seasons. A weird one where he definitely might get a few votes.

Sabermetric

54.1 career bWAR is a lot for a second baseman. He has kind of been a case of what people will think when he gets on. It is a lot of career WAR for someone without 2000 hits, which he missed out by 1. I do think his consistency without excellence though will bite him a lot even amongst sabermetric people but with a career OPS+ at 107 at his position with his defensive value, there will definitely be a few think pieces on why he should be in the hall of fame

Stathead

Kinsler is one of 3 second baseman to record a 30-30 season and he did it twice! An impressive power-speed combo from a position not really known for it

Verdict

Out of the three, he is the least likely for me to vote on. Its not a case that really excites. He will stay on the ballot though.

Russell Martin and Brian McCann

Traditional

I mean they were solid catchers for quite a few teams. I have grouped them because they have the exact same hall of fame case. It is not a traditional one at all. They have a few awards. Few silver sluggers and a gold glove between them, but none represented even the best catcher in the league even whenever they were in their primes

Sabermetric

The worst guy you know wants these guys to be hall of famers. It all revolves around one stat: framing. Look, I love framing. I think Jeff Mathis and Jose Molina are awesome players because of how good they were at framing. I think it is an essential skill that catchers need in a non-robo ump era and good framers are awesome to watch. Watching Jose Molina frame is like eating the greatest meal of all time surrounded by all of your greatest friends and having the best conversation.

Framing alone should not make you a hall of famer, nor should it be your hall of fame case. That is where Martin and McCann’s conversations go to. They both were never the best catcher in the league in their primes. You could argue Molina and definitely Posey were leagues better than both. You could argue Salvy was better than both. Out of those five, only Posey and Molina should be considered in my opinion.

Fangraphs

Fangraphs WAR is objectively better than bWAR for exclusively catchers (IMO its worse for every other position). By fWAR, McCann and Martin are top 15 catchers all time. It even says Martin is better than Mauer all time. They are also above Thurman Munson, Jorge Posada and JT Realmuto.

Verdict

As I said, framing in itself is not a case. I need some peak as a true best player in baseball which was never the case with either. No on both

Dustin Pedroia

Traditional

The first MVP on the list! Pedroia won 2008 MVP very deservedly and an awesome second baseman in his time. Out of Utley, Kinsley and him, he is definitely the most liked. The 2018 Red Sox were built on just getting revenge for everyone who injured Petey. That’s where the conversation goes to with him. Petey was incredible but then his career, like many on this ballot, was ravaged by injuries. He was definitely on a hall of fame start to his career and honestly, by far the best player out of the three second basemen on the ballot. He was also one of the most liked leaders in MLB. He will definitely get a few votes at least, if not at least 10% of the vote.

Sabermetric

Pedroia has over 50 bWAR even with all his injuries which is awesome. He actually has the least WAR out of him, Utley and Kinsler. He also did not reach 2000 hits. He did have a .800 career OPS at second base which is insane. He was also a great defender statistically. Nearly a 100 Defensive Runs Saved even with all his injuries and less than 1500 games is a great rate, especially for second base.

Stathead

Utley is one of only 7 second basemen with 50 bWAR and a career OPS of .800. He is also a different tier defender to many on this list, with only Utley being on his level in that situation. He also has a comparable career to Jose Altuve, despite nearly 400 less games than him.

Verdict

Many might not vote for him, but Pedroia has a perfect mix of everything for me. He is someone who could definitely usher in a new era of players who were injured but represented a good and long enough peak to make it, a seal already broken by someone like Joe Mauer. I am voting for Petey (4/10)

Andy Pettitte

Traditional

Look, he is the first steroid guy on the ballot. He is a tainted case just through that. I feel we need nuance though. Pettitte admitted to using steroids a while ago, he apologized and used in an era where steroids were not fully illegal. I feel bad for him. He is the greatest playoff pitcher of all time and would have been an interesting case to look at. It is just sad that he is tainted

Sabermetric

Again a tainted case. Pettitte, however, would have been a sabermetric darling. 60 bWAR with the greatest playoff legacy. He had a 3.74 FIP for his career and for pitching in a homer friendly era, he never allowed many with a career HR/9 less than 1. He also ate innings, something that is a lost art that many appreciate (see Mark Buehrle). Even though Sabermetric guys do not care as much about the steroids, it being on his resume will be enough to detract many.

Stathead

Pettitte is one of 11 pitchers with as many innings at as good of an ERA+ with that low of a rate of allowing home runs. The only pitcher not in the hall of fame on this list is Roger Clemens (for obvious reasons).

Verdict

Its sad because I do really appreciate what Pettitte did. Coming out and saying he was sorry and admitting it was wrong takes a lot, but I do not think it is enough for me to justify a vote for him

Hanley Ramirez

Traditional

If Hanley was on a less stacked ballot, I might honestly see a world where he would stay on. Rookie of the Year, Runner up in MVP. His first four seasons are truly hall of fame caliber. It is just that afterwards his bad defense at short got worse and he aged out of his tools. It is sad, because traditional voters will remember the swing, the personality, the tools of his prime. His 2013 might be one of my personal things that I think about too much. 89 games, with an average of .345 and 20 home runs is wild stuff. Your prototypical traditional lead off hitter. He will not stay on but he was awesome in his first years

Sabermetric

Hanley’s final career WAR of 38 is impressive considering he was really bad defensively. A non-sabermetric person could have told this from just the eye test. Hanley, however, was so good offensively at the shortstop position that it never really mattered. His 2009 is a 3-4-5 season which is awesome but I keep going back to 2013. 5.2 bWAR in 89 games is a lot. That is a 10 bWAR pace which would be only the 7^th SS one since integration and the first since A-Rod’s 2000. He would have only been the 4^th shortstop to have over a 1.000 OPS in a season. He resembles a steep fall off but also some insane highs that a lot of people would have loved to see play out.

Stathead

Hanley is one of only 4 shortstops to have a season with a batting average as high as he had as a qualified hitter. A truly incredible season out of him.

Verdict

Again, awesome he is on the ballot. Might get a few votes but not mine.

Manny Ramirez

Traditional

Ok its Manny. Like what do you want me to say? Its Manny Ramirez. He has 500 home runs and was one of the most iconic names of the 2000s. Maybe the most who knows. He also got caught with steroids way after it was regulated. He got caught in 2010 and then got caught multiple times. He was a quirky and fun personality in baseball and a really good player as well. Postseason home run leader for a reason. Its his 9^th year on the ballot though, voters have made it very clear Manny will not be elected on the writer’s ballot at least.

Sabermetric

3-4-5 for his career and also one of the worst defensive players of all time. He also has around 69 bWAR which is funny because its Manny. He averaged an OPS of 1.032 from 1999 to 2008. He was great. Now I guess is when I introduce a sabermetric voting belief that I also believe in. With steroid guys, I believe in removing 30% of their career and still seeing if they are a hall of famer. If you do that Manny, I cannot really say that. Sabermetrically, he will get a lot of votes of people who do not care about the PEDs but from people who employ the thinking I mentioned, he will not get much support there.

Stathead

Manny has the highest OPS of any player to play all season from 1999 to 2008. Without that requirement, only Bonds has a higher OPS than him.

Verdict

I will not extend a vote to Manny Ramirez if I am being honest. I have less sympathy for him compared to Pettitte or even other older steroid users.

Fernando Rodney

Traditional

The vibes! The sideway cap, the archer celebration, the changeup. Fernando Rodney will not make the hall of fame. He did not have 400 saves and he was traded around a lot to end his career. He is, however, one of the most iconic relievers of his time. He was a scary pitcher to face in his prime and has maybe the greatest reliever season of all time. A great pitcher for multiple teams in his career and someone who was hired as an important arm for many a great team. Rodney might not even get a vote, but deserves his recognition and its awesome he is on the ballot.

Sabermetric

Rodney was never a strikeout guy and always walked quite a few. However, he pitched in the statcast era so I decided to look a bit into that data. Even in 2018, as a 41 year old on the A’s, Rodney had a top 20 changeup and sinker in baseball. Prime Rodney would have been really fun to have statcast data on. That 0.60 ERA season in Tampa with statcast for the sinker and the changeup would have been data that would have been in retweets for years to come. What Rodney was good at was avoiding hard contact on his pitches. His expected ISOs and Hard Hit Rates were top in the league well towards the end of his career as well.

Stathead

Before Clase’s incredible season last year, Fernando Rodney’s 2012 was the lowest proper season of any pitcher in the expansion era.

Verdict

He might not get a single vote, but Rodney was great and in a less crowded year, might have had a similar story to K-Rod and stayed on.

Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez? The financial host?

I will betray my structure. Do you need me to tell how good Alex Rodriguez was at baseball? He has a 117 bWAR, 3000 hits, nearly 700 home runs. I do not really need to explain how that makes him a hall of famer. There is not much more you can do. He won MVP thrice and probably got robbed of more than he won. Broke the record for biggest MLB contract twice. I will not just dangle a page or stats in front of you with some massive goal to say “A-Rod good at baseball”

You know that. You also know he got caught with steroids both before and after it was acceptable. He has also spent the entirety of his past 10 years rebuilding his image post Biogenesis. It will not work this year. He will not get in this year. I hope he does though. As a Mariner’s fan, I should hate him. I can’t. He is not a real man. He physically cannot be. He is less of a human being and more of an absolute mythical entity. I hope he ends up with not just a plaque in Cooperstown, but his number in Memorial Park.

If I remove 30% of A-Rod’s career, he is still a first ballot hall of famer. The only steroid guy on the ballot that I have space for. I will vote for A-Rod (5/10)

Francisco Rodriguez

Traditional

He has 400 saves. Pretty much the only traditional statistic that matters for relievers. He does have character concerns throughout his career but there is a solid sect of hall of fame voters that believe in keeping K-Rod around. I think he will stay on but more as an acknowledgment for the incredible start he had to his career. Definitely one of the most torrid starts save-wise any reliever has ever had. He also has the most saves in a single season ever. 62 in 2007 in one of the most iconic save celebrations. That simple turn around to his knees every time. It was simple. It was awesome to look at.

Sabermetric

K-Rod was on a hall of fame pace before he kind of yipped out of the league in 2017. It is a really weird page to look at. Age 34, 3.24 ERA followed by Age 35, 7.82 and never plays in the league again. Look, father time is unbeaten and even here, it was just so sudden with K-Rod. There is a strong sabermetric case that has a lot to do with his prime and the pace to start his career.

Stathead

K-Rod is one of only 4 relievers to have 8 or more seasons of 35 saves, and a lot of them are 40 save or even 50 save seasons. This includes his top 5 cy young finishes and his insane highs with Angels and Mets (and somehow the Brewers)

Verdict

I believe a reliever has to be truly game changing for me to vote for them. K-Rod was fun and a lot will vote to keep him on but I will not be one.

Jimmy Rollins

Traditional

Jimmy Rollins won MVP in what might be the funniest MVP race I have ever seen. Genuinely, if you need some fun, go through the NL MVP race of 2007 and compare it to AL. This is not to say Jimmy was a bad choice. Not at all. 30-30 with 20 triples and 38 doubles is incredible, adding to great shortstop defense. He was also a great leader for some great Phillies teams. He just had what happened to many shortstops before him. Father time got to him quick. By the time he reached LA, he was half the player defensively.

Sabermetric

Sabermetric people have their doubts with Jimmy. He was a great defensive player and compares favorably at the start of his career to people like Lou Whittaker. Rollins was a 4 and a half tool guy for a lot of his career but sabermetrically, he does not really offer something interesting. The fast end to his career also does not do much to endear a full statistically inclined voter.

Stathead

Rollins is one of three players with 400 steals, 200 home runs and 100 triples in his career. A good mix of speed and power at a position not known for the power.

Verdict

People do love his hall of fame case but me personally? I am not one of them however. Rollins will stay all ten years but would need some convincing to get a deeper look into his case.

CC Sabathia

Traditional

Sabathia missed out on 300 wins but he does have 250. The main statistic with Sabathia is 3000 strikeouts. Reaching that extremely arbitrary total sort of guaranteed his place in Cooperstown. A Cy Young award winner and a great pitcher for the Yankees, whilst also being a popular personality and premier figure in the league post-retirement. The question with Sabathia becomes whether he will be first-ballot. A lot of people have counted him out for election this year, which is weird. He reminds me a lot of the sentiments people had for Joe Mauer last year. A guy who people are expecting to have a journey but might make it in first ballot. I think Sabathia actually has a stronger traditional case than Mauer did due to his longevity and consistency deep into his 30s. Particularly picking it up at the end of his career after a few bad seasons after his last all-star appearance to become the elder statesman for the Yankees might make him an interesting first ballot guy. I will also use this to say that I think it would be an awesome gesture if the Brewers retire his jersey for his exploits.

Sabermetric

A lot of sabermetric guys love Sabathia. The consistency with strikeout percentages in the 20s deep into his career despite a declining stuff rating on his pitches helped. People also point to how he might be the greatest rental trade of all time. 4.9 bWAR in the second half of a season with a career bWAR of 61.8. Using that imaginary 60 bWAR hall of famer line, Sabathia cleared it in his final years very similarly to how he cleared 3000 K’s. We do also have statcast data on a really old CC. Even at 38, he threw a cutter with a run value of 13. CC would have had a top 5 cutter in MLB at 38 if he threw that in the 2024 season. Sabathia was also elite at avoiding hard hit balls and had elite extension deep into his career, basically allowing him extra leverage on an arsenal even with a loss in velocity.

Stathead

Sabathia is one of only 3 lefty starters in history to pitch 3500+ innings at a level at least 15% better than league average, whilst also having 3000 strikeouts. This puts Sabathia in the same category as Carlton and Johnson, a group which Kershaw will probably not qualify for. This showcases Sabathia’s elite length and longevity whilst having elite stuff throughout.

Verdict

I do not really believe in first ballot or not. If people are hall of famers, I will vote for them. Sabathia is a hall of famer in my opinion so he gets my vote (6/10)

Ichiro Suzuki

Traditional

I could almost do what I did for A-Rod here. How can you say Ichiro, one of the best if not the best pure hitter in the history of Major League Baseball is not a hall of famer. I say this as a fan of Japanese baseball as well. Ichiro won a batting title, all-NPB or best 9 and gold glove from 1994-2000. Ever year. Each. That’s how good this man was there and then he come to MLB and broke the league. Ichiro had 10 gold gloves and won MVP in his rookie year. Then went on to break the single season hit record, a record many thought was straight up unbeatable. He had one of the greatest arms in MLB history. Iconic highlights on top of iconic highlights. And star power. The star power was off the charts. Who did not want to be Ichi? The coolest player and he played on awful teams. He literally defined the star player stuck on bad teams. Ichiro is the hit king in my eyes because NPB is a professional league only a few steps away from MLB and he dominated both leagues in a way not many did.

Some may even say he should be unanimous. I agree. However, I have this weird feeling that he won’t be. Ichiro had 3000 hits, yes. He won MVP in his rookie year, yes. He broke baseball’s most mythical record, yes. I do think that there will be annoying voters who will not vote him for not having traditional power or for not winning the world series. For those I say, lets kick out Ted Williams from the hall of fame and Brooks Robinson was probably awful as well so lets get rid of him as well. It is a flawed logic that makes no sense to me. I do think, however, that Ichiro will not be unanimous which is crazy to me as a Mariners fan and general baseball fan with eyes.

Sabermetric

He had 60 bWAR on the dot but it is also important to know that Ichiro, despite winning 10 gold gloves in a row in MLB, probably suffers bWAR wise due to not playing his prime defensive years in the MLB. If you look at his WAR from NPB, he had 50 bWAR there in just 7 full seasons. Combining both leagues, he is easily over 100 bWAR. He was also a 3-4-5 hitter in that league in contrast to a 107 OPS+ in MLB. His overall stats also suffer due to his older years where he remained a solid average bat but did not maintain his speed and defense, the values that kept up his bWAR. Ichiro, ultimately, is not really a sabermetric case which is why it does not make much sense going deep into those statistics. The first 10 years of his career are such an outlier that after that, it acts sort of as a way of reaching the major hall of fame statistics, a-la Craig Biggio, albeit definitely better.

Stathead

You want to talk about outliers? Ichiro had 9 seasons in his career with a .300 batting average, 30 steals and 200 hits. No one else has more than 4. This does not even include a season where he stole 26 bases. The first 10 years of Ichiro in MLB might be one of baseball’s biggest outliers. It’s a skillset practically never seen and something not seen since.

Verdict

(7/10)

Come on yall. This one is easy.

Troy Tulowitzki

Traditional

If only Tulo. Tulo was the most unique build to ever come to short. 6’3, 205. You would think someone like that would be an awful defender. After all, the other tall shortstops before him like Jeter and Ripken were. Then Tulowitzki won 2 gold gloves, probably would have won more if he played full seasons and had a generational arm at the position. Hitting wise, his power at Coors Field was a treat. Tulowitzki hit 20 home runs in a season 7 times, in an era before the power hitting shortstop. The problem with him was he sadly could not stay healthy. When Tulo was on the field, he was absolutely a hall of famer. Unlike Pedroia or even David Wright, we never truly saw a healthy Troy Tulowitzki. What we did see of him was magical. He will not be a hall of famer, but he will be remembered as maybe the greatest what-if at the shortstop position.

Sabermetric

Tulowitzki put up nearly 4 bWAR defensively as a rookie. He had a career OPS of .856. What is not to love about his sabermetrically. He put up 44.5 bWAR and averaged 5.6 bWAR per 162 games. Not many shortstops are at that level. So many Tulo masterpieces were left frustratingly incomplete. That 2010 where he finished 5^th in MVP voting after putting up 6.7 bWAR in 122 games. 2013 where he had 5.0 bWAR in 126 with an OPS of .931. Finally, a 2014 where in 91 games he had an OPS of 1.035 with 5.7 bWAR. A 10.1 bWAR pace. He was a truly magical player.

Stathead

Tulo had 6 seasons of at least 5 bWAR. Look at this company and then think of the fact that most of those seasons he had were not even full. Everyone except Nomar ended their careers as a hall of famer, yet Tulo still remains a what-if.

Verdict

If only. If only we saw a truly injury free Troy Tulowitzki. He will not get my vote, but with a strong core of passionate Colorado baseball voters, he might stay on.

Chase Utley

Traditional

Utley is a very weird case. He does not have much traditionally. 6 all-star appearances and 4 silver sluggers alongside his 2008 world series ring. He did not have 2000 hits to end his career. He also played in the same era as Dustin Pedroia in the NL where he was arguably the worse player. Utley was also a negative with character. He has the infamous slide play into Ruben Tejada as a Dodger and was generally seen as a “bit of a tool” according to multiple journalists, who ran that headline after the Tejada play. Yet, Utley received 28% of the vote last year. How?

Sabermetric

Well, Utley might be the most sabermetric favorite on this ballot. He had by far the most WAR out of him, Kinsler and Pedroia with 64.5. Utley also somehow never won a gold glove despite being nothing short of one of the greatest defenders at the second base position. Utley was also an extremely efficient base stealer, with only 22 caught stealing to 154 stolen bases. Utley basically resembles the perfect player for WAR. A great hitter at a premium position, who walked, stole bases efficiently and played great defense. One might say that, but one might also say that its just the definition of a player with incredible tools who deserves to be recognized for that.

Stathead

Utley had 6 seasons of 10 fielding runs and 15 batting runs. These are the values that go into the formula for bWAR. The only 2 players with 3 or more are Robinson Cano and Pedroia, and neither of them defended at the level of Utley, with Utley having more fielding runs than both players combined.

Verdict

I will admit, I am a recent convert to Utley’s case. It is noticing how much the ‘character clause’ took traditional awards from him and how out of the incredible Phillies core, he was the best player. I am sorry for not believing in him last ballot, but I do now. If I voted, I would vote for Utley (8/10)

Omar Vizquel

I will not talk about Omar Vizquel. If you do not know what happened with him, you can find out if you really want to. In such a light hearted ballot breakdown, I do not want to talk about the heinous actions that he has been accused of. I will not vote for him and frankly it is disgusting that after his initial drop in support two years ago when the story came out, he was the biggest gainer on hall of fame ballots that did not make Cooperstown last year. Let’s just move on

Billy Wagner

Traditional

Look, this is the 10^th year for Billy Wagner. If Billy Wagner, one of the greatest and most consistent closers of all time, does not get in, what reliever will ever get in? Jansen and Kimbrel are the tier below him and it seems like no one will ever rack up the amount of saves Billy has, with inning restrictions and committee closer roles. Despite all of that, traditionally he has 420 saves and a career 2.31 ERA in 900 innings. He struck out nearly 1200 batters in those 900 innings and was the original fireball closer. None of this “Nolan Ryan threw a 107 MPH pitch”. Probably did not. You know what we do know? Billy Wagner averaged a 100 on his fastball in an era where no one did. He also ended his career on a high, with maybe the best final season for any closer. Sadly, a lot of traditional voters ding him on 12 playoff innings. Hear that. 12 INNINGS OF A MAN’S 900 CAREER INNINGS. That is what is keeping him out the hall.

Sabermetric

However, Billy’s case is sabermetric. He set the record for K/9 in his 2^nd year and broke it again the next year. He had a career ERA+ of 187 and a K/BB ratio of nearly 4. For every walk he issued, he struck out more than a whole inning of batters. He struck out 33.2% of all batters he faced. He pitched in the most home run friendly era of hitters and he surrendered less than 1 home run per 9 innings for his career. I could pull so many statistics but it all says the same thing, he was a generationally dominant pitcher and if he pitched in any era except one dominated by Mariano Rivera, he would have seen widely as a top 3, maybe top 2 closer ever. Easily the greatest lefty reliever of all time.

Stathead

Wagner and Mo are the only two primary relievers to pitch over 500 innings in relief and have an ERA+ of 185. That is how good Wagner is. 900 innings of being 85% better than the league average pitcher.

Verdict

If a baseball writer is reading this, I only have one request. Just vote for Billy Wagner. A player that good should not have been 7 votes from induction and not make it. He is too good to not make it and if he does not, we might not see another reliever make the hall of fame. (9/10)

David Wright

Traditional

If I voted last year, I would have voted for David Wright. He is the same case of so many different people on this ballot. A star on a hall of fame track that ended up with multiple career and life altering injuries that stopped that prime and made their whole career a what-if. Where David Wright loses his points with not having traditional statistics like 2000 hits or even 250 home runs, he has his character. You do not earn the nickname ‘Captain America’ without being one of the most universally loved players. He got Mets fans to unanimously like him. Do you know how much of a feat that is? Wright put his body on the line to make the play and fans have sympathy for how his career ended and how fast the fall was with him. The only problem is he had a very weak debut on the ballot last year and it seems like the quick fall of his career will keep him from the hall of fame. He unfortunately is also a what-if scenario.

Sabermetric

Why I like David Wright is his hitting. He had some solid years with glove but with Wright, its always about his hitting and base running. Wright had 4 full seasons with an OPS of over .900 at the corner and stole bases at an efficient clip. He also had 2 seasons with over 90 walks and a near 3-4-5 rate in all, only going 3-4-5 in one. A career walk rate a 11% is also great, especially alongside a career strikeout rate at 18% even with the bad years. Wright also had 49.2 bWAR, a total that practically stopped after age 30. That rate actually puts him in line with Scott Rolen. Where they differ is Rolen went on to have great years after age 30 whilst Wright was ruined by the injury bug around those years.

Stathead

Wright is one of eight third basemen to have 8 or more seasons with an OPS+ of 120 or higher in at least 490 plate appearances. It shows his ability to have healthy sample sizes of great hitting when he was able to stay healthy.

Verdict

As someone who might have voted for him last year if I had a vote, I sadly think the ballot is too crowded for me to vote for him. If I had an 11^th vote, it would go to him. For now, he will be left off.

Ben Zobrist

Traditional

The wildcard. The fun one. Zobrist is listed as a second baseman. Sure that is where he played 900 of his 1500 defensive games, but that limits him so much. Zobrist is remembered for his extreme utility. A man who could genuinely play every position except catcher. He has even pitched. Zobrist has started at least 8 games at every position on the field except catcher and pitcher. Third base is only so low because he played with Evan Longoria, Mike Moustakas and Kris Bryant in his career. He could definitely play there as well. Zobrist traditionally might be the weakest candidate in the whole pool. He only has 1500 hits and less than 175 home runs. He never won a major award except World Series MVP in 2016. Traditionally, he looks like a one-and-done with zero votes.

Sabermetric

So why would am I voting for him? It is simple for me honestly. In my opinion, the greatest of all time at a position should be in the hall of fame and Zobrist is the greatest utility man of all time. Hitting wise, he has nearly 900 walks and a career walk rate of 12.2%. He only struck out 14.5% of the time for his career. Then there was the defense. Zobrist could not just play every position, he could defend at an elite level at every position. He has a career fielding runs at 51. Whilst we are at the formula for bWAR, Zobrist is one of the two players who popularized the stat in the first place. His 2009 where he led the league in bWAR is the first time many people heard of the statistic and he finished with a career mark of 44.5. This number still does not represent what having Zobrist meant for a team. A man who could free up roster spots because he could defend and hit at an elite level practically everywhere on the field.

Stathead

Zobrist is the only player in MLB history to have 50 fielding runs and an above average OPS whilst playing every non-pitcher or catcher position. The only truly elite defensive and offensive utility man. One might call a super-utility player

Verdict

My final vote on my mock ballot goes to Ben Zobrist because he represents the most interesting hall of fame case, maybe ever. A player who popularized analytics that still do not show his true value for a team and its construction. Again, the best player at a position all time should be in the hall of fame and Zobrist is the greatest utility man of all time (10/10).

The Final Mock Ballot

Carlos Beltran

Mark Buehrle

Felix Hernandez

Dustin Pedroia

Alex Rodriguez

CC Sabathia

Ichiro Suzuki

Chase Utley

Billy Wagner

Ben Zobrist

Thanks so much to Baseball Reference and Stathead for the resources for most statistics used. Thanks also go out to FanGraphs and Baseball Savant for Stathead data.

Daily Newscast November 9, 2023

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