NBA Eastern Conference Preview

By David Giardino – @giardino_david

Hello everybody, the NBA season is finally upon us and with it comes my official predictions for the upcoming season. I am not going to be giving a full 1-15 ranking of the teams in each conference, instead I will be breaking the conferences into a series of tiers of teams. The order I put the teams inside those tiers is my loose ranking of the teams (not how they will finish in the regular season) but the more important part is the tiers themselves. Now with the formalities out of the way, here is my preseason rankings of the Eastern Conference.

Tier 1: Best of the Best

1. Boston Celtics (Last Season: 64-18, won NBA championship):

The Boston Celtics were clearly the best team in basketball last year and nothing in the offseason leads me to believe that anything will change this year. Last year, the Celtics had far and away the best offense in basketball, the highest rating, most points/possession, highest eFG% and the lowest turnover rate, along with a top 5 defense as well. The system that Joe Mazzulla has implemented on the offensive side of the ball truly maximizes the upside of every player on that roster and runs like a well oiled machine. It is the epitome of modern analytics basketball. The Celtics have created the perfect roster for the modern game of basketball. It of course all starts with their two stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who are two of the most well rounded players in the league and because of the drama surrounding the Olympic team are both going to come into this season with a serious chip on their shoulders. Additionally they were able to retain the rest of their roster, guys like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis should still be able to produce similarly to what they did last year. They also drafted Baylor Scheierman in the first round of this year’s draft who I believe will come in and make an impact on this team in the regular season and take some pressure off the top guys. Overall, there is no reason to believe that the Celtics won’t have a top 5 offense and top 5 defense once again and have the best odds of repeating as champions.

Tier 2: Conference Championship Contenders

2. New York Knicks (Last Season: 50-32, lost in conference finals):

The Knicks far and away made the biggest splashes this offseason. They first traded 4 unprotected first round picks, a top 4 protected first, and a pick swap for one of the NBA’s best 2-way players in Mikal Bridges, and then followed it up with a last second move for Timberwolves star Karl-Anthony Towns. It is clear that after a breakout year last year which saw Jalen Brunson explode into superstardom that the Knicks wanted to capitalize on the buzz around the team, and with the moves they made they are more than poised to be a championship contender. Now this comes with some questions: the loss of Isaiah Hartenstein leaves a lot of holes in this team as he was the team’s best rebounder along with one of the driving points of that offense with his ability to distribute the ball. Because of this, Tom Thibodeau is going to have to reinvent how this team goes about their offense. That being said, both offseason additions provide quite a bit on that side of the ball. Towns is one of the best shooting big men we have ever seen in this game and is a bonafide scorer, a guy that can average in the high 20s as a focal point of this offense. Bridges on the other hand is a career 38% shooter and that number will probably rise as he will most likely get considerably better looks in this offense than last year in Brooklyn. Additionally this team should be able to improve on what already was a top 5 defense in basketball last year. While they definitely lost some rim protection in the offseason, this is one of if not the best perimeter defending team in the league this year. The switchability of Bridges alongside OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, will be a headache for opposing guards and should be more than enough to cover up Brunson’s defensive woes. Overall this team is very top heavy on paper, but unlike other teams with that starpower, all these pieces fit together perfectly. If the chemistry gels and the offense runs as well as I think it can, this is a team that could easily find itself in the Eastern Conference Finals if not the NBA finals.

3. Milwaukee Bucks (Last Season: 49-33, lost in first round):

The Bucks have somehow found themselves as arguably the most overlooked, undervalued team in basketball this year by the national media. I get this team had a messy start and end to the season but there is still a ton of talent on this team and fits really well together so I don’t understand people writing the Bucks off. I also think this team got significantly better this offseason. The signing of Gary Trent Jr. has gone largely unnoticed but he will slide in perfectly into this Milwaukee starting lineup. He is a 40% three point shooter who already has chemistry with Damian Lillard. This Bucks starting lineup of Lillard, Trent, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez is one of the best starting groups in the league, the name of the game is keeping that lineup on the floor. When healthy this team can clearly contend for a championship but that has not happened over the last couple of years. Additionally, the Bucks are in need of a breakout from one of the young guys off their bench. Bobby Portis, and Delon Wright are staples there but if they can get a breakout from Andre Jackson, AJ Johnson, or AJ Green, that would take a lot of pressure off that starting unit. This is still a very good basketball team and if they remain healthy there is a good chance that this team will contend for the title this year, people truly undervalue how much of an impact Giannis can make on a season and if he is playing in the playoffs I don’t know how many teams I would pick over them.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (Last Season: 47-35, lost in first round):

If there is a team that ends up lower in the season standings and goes on a run in the playoffs it would be this 76ers team. Philadelphia made the other major splash this offseason by acquiring Clippers’ star Paul George, a move that gives Philly a seriously good big 3 with George alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. They also shaped out the rest of the roster, signing Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon, Reggie Jackson, and Caleb Martin, and Olympic standout Guerschon Yabusele in free agency along with drafting Jarred McCain out of Duke in the first round. This team has quite a bit of flexibility in their lineups but to me the 76ers season comes down to 3 things. The first question is: what jump Tyrese Maxey is going to take this year as the sure fire 2nd option on this team. Last year, Maxey saw his responsibilities grow considerably and he answered the call, jumping his scoring output by 6 points on only slightly worse efficiency. Him becoming a borderline All-NBA player would really help the 76ers considering we are probably going to see a lot of load management between Embiid and George. The second question I have is health. We have not seen a healthy playoff run from Joel Embiid in a really long time. I think this is the year we see Embiid abandon the 65 game threshold needed to get the MVP award and instead focus on being healthy for a playoff run. The final concern I have with this team is their perimeter defense. While not as much of a necessity in the East vs the West, I would be very worried if this team ran into Boston in the playoffs as they are not a good defensive rebounding team, and they do not have a clear perimeter stopper in the rotation. However, the thing they have going for them in that regard is that Nick Nurse has proven to be a great defensive coach in the playoffs. Similarly to the Bucks, a lot of the 76ers’ hopes rely on health at playoff time. Unlike Milwaukee however, this is an unproven group in the playoffs, but they still certainly have a talent to make a run at the conference finals.

Tier 3: Playoff Probables

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (Last Season: 48-34 , lost in 2nd round):

The Cavaliers are probably one of the highest floor teams in the eastern conference. This team is going to be a good regular season team and will be fighting for a top 3 seed if absolutely nothing changes from last season. With that being said, if this team is going to take a jump it solely relies on the shoulders of Evan Mobley. We know that both Donovan Mitchell and Darrius Garland are capable of being 23-25 point per game scorers, but if this team is going to be considered up with the contenders Mobley is going to have to take a significant step forward on the offensive side of the ball. Since his debut in 2021, Mobley really has not made any significant improvements in his offensive game. Considering he is playing alongside Jarrett Allen who is a lob threat and little else, Mobley is going to need to improve his jump shooting range considerably if this offense is going to be able to work in the modern NBA. Defensively this team is good, top 10 with a consistent philosophy, their woes in the playoffs were as a result of a stagnant offense. This team also has good depth with guys Caris LeVert, Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, and Dean Wade. In my opinion this is the last year of the Mobley/Allen experiment. If Mobely can’t grow offensively and the Cavs sputter out in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, the Cavs will have to re-tool in the offseason.

6. Orlando Magic (Last Season: 47-35, lost in first round):

Orlando is a team that improved drastically last season behind breakouts from Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. The Magic had a top 3 defensive rating in basketball, which is not surprising considering the switchability they have on the perimeter with Wagner, Banchero, and Jalen Suggs serving as the opposing guard stopper. This defense will surely be just as good this year or even better with the addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Caldwell-Pope will also try and remedy Orlando’s total lack of outside shooting, but he himself probably can’t do it. The Magic ranked bottom 10 in both points/possession and pace while ranking bottom 2 in 3pt attempts and bottom 5 in 3pt percentage. If this team is going to take the next step guys like Wagner, and Cole Anthony are going to need to improve in that department. The Magic have a very playable 8 man playoff rotation right now but could really benefit from a guy like Anthony Black or Caleb Houston  taking a big step forward. It will also be really interesting to see how rookie Tristan da Silva fits into the mix as he seems like a pretty NBA ready prospect that fits what they’re trying to do. Overall, Orlando’s defense is legitimate and is not going anywhere, but it is really really hard to win in the modern NBA if you aren’t taking and making a high volume of 3s.

7. Indiana Pacers (Last Season: 47-35, lost in conference finals):

The Pacers had an absolute rollercoaster of a season last year. After the Commissioner’s Cup they looked like the best team in the East and Tyrese Haliburton looked like he was gunning for an All-NBA first team season, then when Haliburton hurt his hamstring the Pacers took an absolute nosedive. The success of this team the upcoming season will also rely on the health of Haliburton, when he is healthy he’s almost an automatic 15 points and 15 assists, but when he’s not healthy their entire game is forced to shift, they have to play slower and aren’t as effective. With that being said I hope to see the Pacers lean a little bit more into Pascal Siakam,who they acquired at the trade deadline last year, as their go-to scorer this year. With the tempo and spacing that Indy plays with, Siakam is going to have all the freedom in the world to exploit mismatches in the post, something that he is very good at. Additionally one of the main reasons this team can play so up tempo is their depth. Andrew Nembhard exploded onto the scene in the playoffs next year and solidified his role as the off guard next to Haliburton. Aaron Nesmith also improved greatly as that 3 and D wing in the starting lineup. Even the Pacers bench has a ton of talent. Benedict Mathurin was hurt for the majority of the year last year but he is an amazing option to come in and lead the bench unit as he will have the ball in his hands a ton running this unit alongside guys like Ben Sheppard and Obi Toppin. The biggest question surrounding this team is on the defensive side of the ball. They had the 6th worst defensive rating last season which is 5 spots lower than the next playoff team. I am always a little hesitant to bank on super up-tempo teams to make runs in the playoffs as the game slows down significantly. However, there is a clear path to success for Indiana through good team defense, and a Siakam centered half court attack.

8. Miami Heat (Last Season: 46-36, lost in first round):

The final team in this group of playoff probables is the Miami Heat. I think this has to be the year that Miami has to at least be a decent regular season team to be competitive in the playoffs, this isn’t a group that can just “turn it on” in the play-in and expect to go on a run. That being said, this Miami group has a lot to be excited about. I think this might be the year where we see Bam Adebayo emerge as the best player on this team. He is going to be the engine of this offense and I am really looking forward to seeing the different looks he can get through dribble handoffs, off the ball motion and some of those movement 3s that Miami loves to get. I also believe that bam is finally going to have the green light from 3 this year which will add an exciting dynamic to his game. Obviously Jimmy Butler is still a major key to this team’s success but he is the guy that is going to have to drive the regular season engagement. We all know what he can do in the playoffs but can they put together a full season and avoid the play-in. Otherwise the Heat have some really exciting role players as well. Obviously Jaime Jaquez had a really good rookie year averaging around 13 points per game. Expect to see him take a jump in the spot up shooting department this upcoming year. Additionally, both Nikola Jovic and Kel’el Ware look ready to make an immediate impact for this team which helps take a lot of the load off an aging Kevin Love. Finally, Tyler Herro is supposedly going to be the main off-ball option in this offense which is very scary in this Eric Spolstra system with his shooting pedigree. The Heat still have the talent to make a run in the playoffs this year, they certainly have the coaching, but the main question is still: is the interest there BEFORE they playoffs start?

Tier 4: Fight for the play-in

9. Atlanta Hawks (Last Season: 36-46, lost in play-in)

The Hawks are one of the more intriguing teams in the East this season. I actually think they improved their roster quite a bit and this is a pretty low pressure year for them. This is a year for the Hawks how they get to figure out how their young talent fits with Trae Young and if he fits into their long term plans. I think this might finally be the year that Onyeka Okongwu solidifies himself as this team’s center of the future and finally replaces Cline Capela full time this year. I am also really intrigued by how the duo of Jalen Johnson and number one overall pick Zachary Risacher work together. Johnson is going to make a massive case for most improved player this year, and I think will grow into Atlanta’s second option, and in combo with Risacher they have a good 2-wing core moving forward. Lastly it will be interesting to see how Dyson Daniels grows next to Trae Young. He is nowhere the offensive player that Dejounte Murray is, but is the point of attack defender that the Hawks thought they were getting in Murray. I think that the floor for this team is the 9 seed and there’s a very high likelihood that they end up in the play-in with a strong outlook on their future.

10. Toronto Raptors (Last Season: 25-57, missed playoffs)

Toronto reset her timeline at the deadline this last season, trading Pascal Siakam for R.J Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. This is the first year we get to see that core together and while I think this team finishes outside the play-in, I think Raptors fans will be pleased with the progression of this core around Scottie Barnes. I would really like to see both Barnes and Barrett modernize their game a tad this year. Barnes took a huge step last year in terms of percentage (34% to 39%) but who knows if that will last. Additionally, Barrett only shooting 4 three’s a game is not enough for your starting SG/SF. There are clear areas for each player on this team to improve but I think that Toronto did a great job resetting their timeline to build around Barnes. 

11. Chicago Bulls (Last Season: 39-43, lost in play-in)

The Bulls have been in purgatory for the last couple of years, and this is the year they have to take the step towards a rebuild. I think that the trading for Josh Giddey and getting rid of DeMar DeRozan were good steps in starting the youth movement for this team, but ideally they will cut ties with more of their older players like Nikola Vucevic this season and lean into younger guys like Jalen Smith and Dalen Terry. We’ll also see if Patrick Williams grows into anything more than a 3&D wing and further develop an offensive game. I want the Bulls to try and average as many points as possible and run the lineup with Coby White, Zach LaVine, and Giddey on the floor at once. The most important things this season for the Bulls are the growth of their young players like Giddey and White, and revive the value of Zach LaVine to trade him.

12. Charlotte Hornets (Last Season: 21-61, missed playoffs)

It’s weird to say this about such a young team but Charlotte taking the next step totally depends on the health of some of their main core. I think Brandon Miller is going to take a huge jump in his sophomore season. He showed flashes of being a number one option in this league and hopefully with LaMelo Ball showing a little more restraint in his shot selection and leaning into his playmaking will open up a lot more for Miller. Additionally, I’m really hoping I get to see more than 20 games of Mark Williams this season as I think he adds a lob threat and a rim protector that really elevates this team. This team still finishes outside the playoffs but if they stay healthy they’ll take a good step in a pretty otherwise putrid basement of the East.

Tier 5: Wave the Flagg:

13. Detroit Pistons (Last Season: 14-68, missed playoffs)

The Pistons drafted one of my favorite players in Ron Holland this year. It will be interesting to see how he fits next to their already established core of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren. Cunningham had to bear an absolutely insane burden last season that you just plain felt bad for him. Additionally, Monty Williams made some head scratching moves in terms of playing time but having no Killian Hayes to play helps. I think this is a team that will have good stretches this year but they’ll eventually find themselves back in the basement.

14. Washington Wizards (Last Season: 15-67, missed playoffs)

There are three things that matter this year for the Wizards: Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, and Bub Carrington. We’ll see where Carrington fits into this team’s long term plans either as the PG or the SG. Sarr is going to be an impact defender right away but it’ll be interesting to see what he can provide on the offensive side. Finally I want them to let Coulibaly lose. He was their high upside pick last year, give him the keys to the offense, let him make mistakes, have him lose some games, but most importantly let him grow. 

15. Brooklyn Nets (Last Season: 32-50, missed playoffs)

It is time for Cam Thomas season in Brooklyn. Let him shoot, and shoot, and shoot as much as he possibly wants this year. There isn’t much else to say about this team, maybe some of their veterans like Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dennis Schroder stay interested long enough to raise their trade stock, regardless they won’t be on the team at the end of the year. This is the first year of this Nets rebuild. They did a good job getting picks in the Mikal Bridges trade, they’ll get more at the deadline, but this team is sure to finish as the worst team in basketball this year.