Hello everybody, NBA season is finally upon us and with it comes my official predictions for the upcoming season. I am not going to be giving a full 1-15 ranking of the teams in each conference, instead I will be breaking the conferences into a series of tiers of teams. The order I put the teams inside those tiers is my loose ranking of the teams (not how they will finish in the regular season) but the more important part is the tiers themselves. Now with the formalities out of the way, here is my preseason rankings of the Western Conference.
Tier 1: Cream of the Crop
- Oklahoma City Thunder (Last season: 57-25, Lost in 2nd Round):
Oh boy it was hard for me as a Thunder fan to not put this team in their own tier. The Thunder were the number 1 seed last year with a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense and somehow got even better. This offseason OKC also added two of the most coveted role players in the league in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, both of whom are perfect fits to OKC's already turnover-driven defense, along with resigning role players Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins on bargain contracts. Caruso is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league being added to an already suffocating perimeter rotation of Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, and Shai Gilgious-Alexander. Hartenstein also adds even more elite rim protection alongside Chet Holmgren, along with adding a whole new dynamic in OKC's 5-out offense. His playmaking from the 5 spot will create numerous opportunities for guys like Williams who are already great cutters and should open up the floor considerably for SGA. Look for Jalen Williams to take yet another step this year. He has grown into such a well rounded player that this will be the year that he maximizes on what he does best. I would like to see him increase his catch and shoot volume because there is sometimes too much hesitation which extends plays longer than they should be, but if that's what I'm nitpicking at I think OKC is in a very good position. This team over performed expectations last year, but it was not a fluke. This is a team that knows themselves, is dedicated, fits unbelievably well together, and is poised to make a title run this year.
- Minnesota Timberwolves (Last season: 56-26, Lost in Western Conference Finals):
My outlook on this Minnesota Timberwolves looked significantly better before the Karl-Anthony Towns trade. I'm not saying that I don't think that trade was necessary, it absolutely was from a cap perspective, but this team is going to massively suffer from the hole that Towns leaves. The trade is a massive bet on the development of reigning 6th man of the year Naz Reid who I believe will be thrust into a starting role eventually. Chris Finch is going to have to do some serious lineup shifting with this new look roster. The positive is that they have amazing depth in guys like Reid, newly acquired Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, along with rookie Rob Dillingham. The problem is, the centerpiece of the trade for Towns, Julius Randle, does not fit next to Rudy Gobert in a starting frontcourt. Minnesota is going to need one of Reid or DiVincenzo to be able to carry a starting load if they are going to be able to operate on offense because a Randle-Gobert frontcourt puts way too much pressure on Anthony Edwards to operate in a very crowded floor. This team will still finish with one of the best defenses in the league, Edwards will still be one of the best players in the league, but this team's half court offense concerns me.
- Dallas Mavericks: (Last season: 50-32, Lost in NBA Finals):
It will be interesting to see how a full year of this Mavs roster looks. Post trade deadline this team had a top 10 defense in the league behind an entire game of elite rim protection from Daniel Gafford, and Derek Lively. A lot of this team's season is going to come down to the defensive ability of Naji Marshall in the backcourt with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Last year the Mavericks playoff run relied a ton on the elevated shooting and perimeter defense of Derrick Jones Jr, he's gone now but is replaced by Marshall who I believe is a slightly worse defender but a considerably better shooter. The most interesting move in the offseason for this team was the signing of longtime Warrior Klay Thompson. Thompson obviously is historically one of the best shooters in NBA history but is not the player he used to be, but I believe he can still provide value for this team off the bench. In their playoff run last year the Mavs were very thin at the guard position and having Thompson who can come in and provide a pure spot up threat alongside Luka will do wonders for the Mavericks. Obviously so much of this team's playoff success relies on Luka's health in the playoffs, he can't be hobbling into another deep-playoff run.
Tier 2: Upside Contenders
- Denver Nuggets (Last season: 57-25, Lost in 2nd Round):
I wanted to put the Nuggets in the above tier but I think they rely on considerably more unknowns than those teams. The loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope leaves a massive hole on a team that already lacked perimeter defending. They also were last in the league in 3pt rate which does not work in the modern NBA, something that the loss of Caldwell-Pope hurts. Denver is going to need one of Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, or Christian Braun to take a massive step on the defensive side and become a pseudo point of attack defender. This offense is going to run well no matter what with Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Michael Porter Jr, but someone is going to need to step up to help out Aaron Gordon on the defensive side. This team obviously still has a chance to win the championship, they have the best player in the world and a system that is proven to work. However, I think that there are some serious concerns in this team's perimeter depth and with the elite guard play in the West, Denver is vulnerable in that way.
- Memphis Grizzlies (Last season: 27-55, Missed Playoffs):
People forget that just 2 years ago this Memphis team was dubbed the “next great team” in the West. To say the Grizzlies struggled with injuries last year is an understatement as star guard Ja Morant was basically out for the entire year which changes this team's entire outlook. With Morant back the rest of the roster will settle back into their roles. Jaren Jackson Jr was forced to become the de facto first option last year which led to his offensive efficiency taking a nosedive. This year Jackson Jr will move back off the ball taking a lot of spot-up threes which is going to be crucial for this team. With the 9th pick in this year's draft, the Grizzlies took 7'4” giant Zach Edey from Purdue. While Edey would not have been a great use of the 9th pick for a lot of teams, he is a perfect fit in Memphis. Ja Morant is probably the most explosive guard in the league and is very good at creating space in the pick and roll, the only difference is now his screener is 7'4” and knows how to take up space in the paint. I expect to see a lot of Spain screens from this offense similar to what we saw when Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams played in Oklahoma City. Additionally, the one bright side from last year is the insane depth that the Grizzlies have been able to acquire. GG Jackson took a massive jump in the point vacuum that took place and will be a great piece off the bench. Also included in this depth is Vince Williams, former defensive player of the year Marcus Smart, and Santi Aldama. Finally, Desmond Bane is a great 3rd option on the offensive side of the ball with his outside shot making ability. I think this team has the chance to surprise a lot of people this year. They have great versatility on both sides of the floor, a clear identity, and a bonafide superstar, they're going to be a tough out in the West.
Tier 3: Playoff Trainwreck
- Phoenix Suns (Last Season: 49-33, Lost in 1st Round):
Now starts the part of the West where any of these teams could finish in any order. I truly believe that 5-10 in the west will finish within 4 games of each other. I think right now my favorite of these team's is Phoenix because of the pure talent they have. At the end of the day this team still has a three headed monster in Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant, which is a very scary defensive assignment. In the offseason two of the best point guards in the league at taking care of the ball, something that the Suns really struggled with, in Tyus Jones and Monte Morris. Phoenix was a terrible 4th quarter team last year in large part due to their turnovers which is surely to be remedied by having solid point guard play. Additionally, the experience that Durant and Booker gained with each other during the Olympics should add some fun wrinkles into the Suns' offense. The main problem with this team as it stands is defense. They do not have a “stopper” on the defensive side of the ball which really hurt them in that first round series against Minnesota. I would look for them to try and make a trade for a defensive first wing at the trade deadline to fill out the rest of this roster. There is hope that maybe rookie Ryan Dunn can fill that role, but he is a far ways away from being in a playoff rotation. This team has offensive talent but a lot of other things need to come in place in Mike Budenholzer's first year for Phoenix to contend.
- Los Angeles Lakers (Last Season: 47-35, Lost in 1st Round):
The Lakers made some sneaky good moves in the offseason, the most important of which being bringing in new head coach JJ Reddick fresh from the ESPN booth. Reddick is going to completely revamp the Lakers half court offense, putting a greater focus on putting guys like DeAngelo Russell and Anthony Davis in better positions. Additionally I think the Lakers are going to be way more intentional on taking more threes as a team. Unfortunately the Lakers still don't have a ton of shooting talent on this team which means a lot is going to fall on the shoulders of rookie Dalton Knecht. Knecht is one of the highest floor prospects in this year's draft with NBA ready shooting that should help the Lakers right away. There is a chance this team breaks into a higher echelon of the West but there are too many unknowns and health concerns for me to move them up right now.
- Sacramento Kings (Last Season: 46-36 , Lost in Play-In):
I think Sacramento is more or less going to be the same team that they have been in the DeAaron Fox–Domantas Sabonis era so far. They're going to go down and score tons and tons of points and give up tons and tons of points on the defensive side. The addition of DeMar DeRozan only perpetuates this. A lineup with Sabonis and DeRozan is not going to be good defensively which means they're going to have to score a ton to make up for it. This means both Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter are going to have to have great years from behind the arc to complement Fox, DeRozan, and Sabonis inside. This team will win a lot of close games with Fox and DeRozan being two of the best clutch scorers in the league but they're going to need to keep games close entering the last 5 minutes. This team has a wide finishing range because of their offense, but their lack of defense really concerns me in the playoffs where the game slows down and defensive matchups are magnified.
- New Orleans Pelicans (Last Season, Lost in 1st Round):
The Pelican's made a very interesting move this offseason, moving on from Jonas Valanciunas in favor of guard Dejounte Murray. Murray should add some much needed defense in the backcourt alongside CJ McCollum. The most exciting part of this team however is their wing pair of Herb Jones and Trey Murphy, a duo that provides a ton of length and defensive versatility, Jones one of the best on ball defenders in basketball and Murphy one of the best shooters. One of the biggest questions with this team is the future of star Brandon Ingram. He is a great player but does not really fit well with Zion Williamson. I think there is a good chance that Ingram is dealt at some point this year to fix this team's lack of size. Not having Valanciunas leaves a massive hole at the center spot for this team, and Zion there is not the answer. Until they address that option they aren't going to be competitive with the size across the contenders in the west.
Tier 4: High-End Play-In
- Golden State Warriors (Last Season: 46-36, Lost in Play-In):
The Warriors are pretty clearly at the tail end of their dynasty and are sitting in mediocrity until Steph Curry retires. This team is very deep, and did a good job filling out this roster with role players in the offseason. Guys like Kyle Anderson, and DeAnthonyMelton provide a lot of defensive versatility to this lineup alongside Draymond Green and Brandin Podziemski. This team needs a massive step from Jonathan Kuminga in order to be competitive in the West. Right now this team does not have a second option outside of Curry, which is a lot of pressure to put on a 36 year old's health. This team has depth, and still has a great system, but their season could spiral really quickly with just one injury.
- Houston Rockets (Last Season: 41-41, Missed Playoffs):
The Rockets are in an awkward spot where they are both trying to develop young talent and win at the same time. Alperen Sengun is the best player on this team, it's time to lean into that and fit the rest of the talent around him. Otherwise, the Rockets have a very good young core with Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Reed Sheppard, but those three need to find a way to fit into how this team operates on the offensive side. I expect Jabari Smith Jr to take a big step this year, and even if he is a very good 3 and D starter, he adds a tremendous amount of value for this team. This team also has good veteran leadership in Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to help the young guys grow. This team will take a good step out of the basement this year, and with a breakout could potentially make a push for the 8 seed.
Tier 5: Outside Looking In
- San Antonio Spurs (Last Season: 22-60, Missed Playoffs):
I'm actually really excited to watch the Spurs play basketball this year. By the end of the year, this team finally settled on the positioning for their main talent. Victor Wenbanyama is going to breakout as a top 15-10 player in basketball this year, he is that good, and this year finally has a playmaking veteran point guard in Chris Paul to elevate his game. Additionally with guys like Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan finally back in their correct positions, they should fit in well next to Wenbanyama. Consistent point guard play between Paul and Tre Jones should help grow the scoring from the rest of the team. This team is clearly not as good as the ones listed above it but if Wemby breaks out in the way I think he can, they could also make a push for the final play-in spot.
- Los Angeles Clippers (Last Season: 51-31, Lost in 1st Round):
The Clippers' contending window officially closed this offseason with the loss of Paul George to the 76ers and an unbelievable amount of pressure on the shoulders of Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden. Especially with Kawhi being out indefinitely to start the year with a lingering knee injury, this Clippers roster is just not good enough to be relevant in the West. The worst news of all for this team is that the Thunder own their 2025 first round pick. It's truly too bad that the Clippers built a nice new stadium this year because there is not going to be quality basketball played there this year.
- Utah Jazz (Last Season: 31-51, Missed Playoffs):
The Jazz are sure to go on a fire sale at some point this year with the only two safe returning players being Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George. Young guys like Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams should give Jazz fans something to root for, but otherwise this season is about continuing to get assets for vets, and developing young guys alongside Markkanen.
Tier 6: Wave the Flagg:
- Portland Trail Blazers (Last Season: 21-61, Missed Playoffs):
Coming out of camp this year, coach Chauncy Billups made a statement that Deni Avdija is the best player on this Trail Blazers team. He will have plenty of opportunities to prove that this year as he will be a key cog in this offense as a playmaker along with young guards Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. It will certainly be interesting to see how Portland balances having two young bigs in DeAndre Ayton and 7th overall pick Donovan Clingan. That being said I wouldn't be surprised to see them move on from Ayton pretty quickly. Portland currently has no idea what they have with their young talent so this is the year to learn that and maybe get some lottery luck.
