BY: Oliver Gerharz

Jonathan Martin, the politics bureau chief at Politico, visited Memorial Union Tuesday night for a public discussion with journalist Mike Gousha about media ethics and the 2024 election.

Martin's position at Politico gives him a unique inside perspective on what happens in Washington, and he shared some of that knowledge with the journalists that had gathered in the Memorial Union Play Circle.

Campaign 2024

Martin began an analogy about the differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns by describing Trump's strategy as “more of a shotgun blast than a rifle.” On the other end, Martin said that the Harris campaign was precise. According to Martin, the Harris campaign is doing everything to win 2024 as a margins game, with goals for democratic voter turnout in areas as precise as individual precincts of cities the size of Eau Claire.

Martin also said that the Harris campaign would be considered a coalition government by European standards. This democratic coalition is made up of the groups that don't want to see Donald Trump become president. The groups gathering behind Harris are left-of-center liberals like Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, socialists like Congress members Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders and conservatives unable to stomach Trump like Liz and Dick Cheney.

In further commentary on the Harris campaign, Martin said that the Harris campaign relies on mobilization and persuasion as their top tactics in this election. According to Martin, the main group that Harris is trying to persuade are voters who are unsure if they will vote for Harris or not vote at all. In a recent article, Martin advised Harris towards the center to win those voters over, a policy she has been following in recent weeks.

In the event of a Harris victory, collaboration across party lines would set a new precedent which has the ability to break the “food fight” politics of the Trump Era. According to Martin, Harris would likely come into a Republican-led Senate if she won. 

“Every modern democrat began with majorities in both chambers,” said Martin. The most recent exception is Grover Cleveland, who served as the 22nd and 24th president of the United States. 

Martin highlighted other differences between Democrats and Republicans leading into this election, with Republicans being confident in a Trump victory while Democrats are “desperately panicked.” 

Martin said that in his experience Republicans generally expect Trump to win Wisconsin by 1.5-2 points and carry Eric Hovde to the Senate with that victory. However, Republican confidence doesn't equate to support. When discussing if Republicans might deny the 2024 election results if asked by Trump, Martin said that “A lot of them [Republicans] are faking. A lot of them don't like Donald Trump.” 

“Politics are about Donald Trump,” said Martin. “Nine years of for or against him, whether you like it or not.”

Yet the Republican party lacks another candidate with similar popular support. According to Martin, Trump's personality just can't be imitated – other candidates have tried and failed to rally their supporters in the way Trump has. “Gravity still exists when your name is not Donald Trump,” said Martin.

Trump's base of supporters is more solid than most Biden's, but Martin said he was still surprised by the choice to step down from the election, citing Biden's pride and long-standing desire to be president. According to Martin, Biden fears being reduced to a “parenthesis between Obama and Trump,” something that has led the president to stop taking the calls of former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi because of her involvement in his decision to step down from the race.

Polling Struggles

Soon after starting, Martin said that “we have never known as little as we know today about a modern election,” making it clear that even to people as steeped in politics as he is, this election really is a coin toss. Also, election results will be up in the air even longer because of laws that prevent certain states from counting ballots from early voting until election day, including key swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

One of the largest polling struggles that Martin told the audience about was how “a lot of the Republican Party does not engage in polling.” To compensate, pollsters try their best to guess at how many people support Trump's presidential campaign. According to Martin, the central question for 2024's polls is whether or not pollsters are underestimating the number of “silent” Trump voters who don't let pollsters in on who they'll be voting for.

However, Martin said that there is a new “silent” voter base favoring Harris. The culture of MAGA Republicanism can make dissent difficult, so Harris is relying on those silent Harris voters. For example, at a recent Harris campaign event, anti-Trump republican Liz Cheney told Republicans that “you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody.”