By Ben Lindsley
Image by Tennessee Titans, retrieved from OpenVerse.org
For die-hard NFL fans, the offseason is often the hardest part of the year; after five months of relaxing weekends watching your favorite teams play their hardest, you now must resort to watching offseason news, rumors, and… the NBA All-Star Game? It's just not the same. Well fear not, dear reader, for March 12 will bring with it the beginning of free agency: a time when teams can begin to go “all-in” or, if you're Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, sign 28-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. Nevertheless, the start of the 2025 league year will be upon us in just a couple of short weeks, and that means a few prominent passers will be searching for new homes. Interestingly enough, only one considerable quarterback with an expiring rookie contract will be looking to start on a new team: Justin Fields. The rest of that class has either already been locked down (Trevor Lawrence) or seems destined to be a career backup (Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, you get the idea). That being said, the majority of free agents this go around are names that have been in the league for a while, some of which you might not have expected around the beginning of last season. My goal is to accurately predict where these players will land. For the purposes of these analyses, I will only be covering players that 1) are set to become free agents on March 12, or 2) are rumored to be on the trade market. This means that I won't be predicting the next team of players like Zach Wilson who, while he will be an unrestricted free agent, probably won't be starting anytime soon. With all of that out of the way, let's look at the top quarterbacks on the market and determine where they're most likely to end up.
Lock in.
Sam Darnold
Probably the biggest surprise to come out of the 2024-25 NFL season was Sam Darnold's abrupt rise to stardom for the Vikings, a team that had only been projected to win around six games. He led the squad to 14 wins, their most since 1998, had a real shot at winning Comeback Player of the Year at the NFL Honors, and prompted an ungodly amount of trash-talk from my Minnesotan roommate. Alas, all good things must come to an end, as Darnold came crashing back to Earth in lackluster performances against the Lions and Rams, the second of which eliminated them from the playoffs. Even despite folding in the worst way possible, this is a team that seems poised to run it back the same way next year. The only issue is, the Vikes still have 2024 first-round pick JJ McCarthy waiting in the wings, and it sounds like he's in a prime position to compete next year. Not only that, but Minnesota has just over $60 million in cap space and still needs to consider both resigning key players like S Cam Bynum and CB Byron Murphy and addressing glaring weaknesses in the secondary and O-line. All of that being said, I don't see a world in which Darnold starts for this team in 2025, especially if he's looking for an expensive, long-term contract.
So, where does he go? To me, the teams that stick out the most are the Raiders and the Titans. These are two very similar teams: both are severely lacking talent at multiple positions, and are desperately in need of answers at the QB position. Barring a trade up from the Raiders, Tennessee is in a better position to draft a prospect like Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders with the 1st overall pick. I don't think they do, as a generational talent like Travis Hunter doesn't come around every year. But that's neither here nor there; the point is, a top QB will probably not be on the board by the time pick no. 6 comes around. Even if one of them does end up falling, Las Vegas is not in a spot to take that risk only for things to not go their way, meaning they will either have to stick with Aidan O'Connell or turn to the free agent market. With $93 million in cap space to work with, the Raiders would be better aligned with Darnold if he seeks a long-term deal. I believe he'll serve as a bridge QB until a stronger draft class comes around, probably on something like a two-year, $60 million deal. But, if the front office believes Darnold can be their future, a four-year deal could absolutely come into the equation. With a rising star in TE Brock Bowers and a lot of underrated skill position players like WR Jakobi Meyers, don't be surprised if the Raiders take a sheet from Minnesota's playbook and turn into sneaky contenders with Sam Darnold at the helm.
Final Prediction: Signs with Las Vegas on two-year, $60 million deal.
Russell Wilson
The year-long quarterback battle in Pittsburgh between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields will likely be coming to an end in a timely fashion. Both will be looking for a chance to start, whether it be with the Steelers or somewhere else, and it's certainly looking like one will stay and one will go. Quite honestly, the pendulum could swing either way at this point. Russ will probably be looking for something around $30-40 million per year, which could be on the expensive side for a Pittsburgh team with just over $50 million in space plus lots of other positions to fill. Fields, on the other hand, will probably be the cheaper choice, projected to earn around $15 million annually. From the cap perspective, Fields seems like the obvious choice. However, if you watched any football last season, you'll know that Fields did get the starting job at the beginning of the season and was benched after six games. Even after a 5-1 start, the offensive efficiency simply wasn't there. Fumbles were also an issue, with six in as many games. After turning to Wilson, both yards and points per game increased, and you could tell the offense was flowing better than before. What happens here is the true definition of a coin flip, but at the end of the day I think the Steelers will land on the side that says “Russell Wilson.” He clicked with the offense in a way that Fields never did, and Pittsburgh knows what they're getting with him whereas Justin is more of the wildcard choice. Again, I could be completely wrong about this, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if I was. But Russ sticking with the Steelers just feels right for now.
Final Prediction: Re-signs with Pittsburgh on three-year, $90 million deal.
Justin Fields
Well Justin, it's just you and me. Pittsburgh decided to go with Russell Wilson, so where does that leave us? For starters, we can look at some of the teams in need of a quick fix at quarterback. The Giants currently have zero (0) QBs on their roster, so they would be a good candidate. However, they seem pretty dead set on drafting either Sanders or Ward with the 3rd overall pick, with the intent to have whichever one they choose start for them. Fields is in a compete-now position, making me pretty confident that this New York won't be pursuing him. The Saints seemed like the perfect landing spot for Fields; New Orleans is $56 million over the cap and in need of a significant rebuild. Derek Carr is accounting for a lot of that cap space, so cutting him would help the Saints begin the process of getting that nightmare contract off the books. Fields could come in as a low salary, high upside player, and bam: problem solved. Or it would have been, if the Saints hadn't announced they were sticking with Carr as the starting quarterback for next season. With that news, we must turn elsewhere.
You're probably wondering why, when discussing the Giants, I worded it as “this New York won't be pursuing him.” Well, dear reader, that's because there's a second team in New York (technically both play in New Jersey, but I digress): the Jets. By now you've probably heard that the Jets plan to move on from Aaron Rodgers this offseason, ending the two-year nightmare that was his tenure with the team. With that cut comes a massive $49 million in dead cap space, which will probably end up being spread out over the next two years. Still, that's $14 million in cap space for a team that already has extremely little to work with (currently $11 million, but more after dealing with Rodgers and Davante Adams). Enter Justin Fields, who can try to help right the ship for a team who hasn't seen considerable success since I was four years old. He might not be there for the long term and, frankly, I don't expect him to be. New head coach Aaron Glenn deserves to have his pick at a prospect that he can turn into the face of the franchise. Whether or not that ends up being Fields, only time will tell. But for now, bringing him onto the ship is a good place to start.
Final Prediction: Signs with New York on two-year, $30 million deal.
Kirk Cousins
It feels weird to talk about Kirk Cousins being on the trade block after signing a massive, $180 million contract with the Falcons just last offseason. Nevertheless, here we are. After being benched during the second half of the season in favor of rookie first-rounder Michael Penix Jr, the Falcons now have a tough decision to make. It sounds like Atlanta is ready to roll with Penix from here on out, so should they try and trade Kirk or simply cut him? He's owed $27.5 million this year alone, so if you're the Falcons you might as well try to get something for him. If the trade route is chosen, Atlanta doesn't have much leverage as they'd be just trying to dump him off, so they might have to agree to pay some or all of his salary. Now hear me out for this one, but the Indianapolis Colts could be a strong suitor for Cousins. Earlier this week, GM Chris Ballard told reporters that he wants to bring in another quarterback to serve as competition for current QB Anthony Richardson. He asserted that it would be “good for the team,” knowing that there were “going to be a few hiccups along the way” for Richardson. The Colts do have $28 million in cap space, so forcing Atlanta to eat some of that salary would go a long way for a team looking to contend in a relatively weak AFC South division. Richardson needs someone who can push him to play his very best, as well as a reliable replacement if he gets injured again, and Kirk Cousins would fill both of those roles perfectly.
Final Prediction: Traded to Indianapolis.
Aaron Rodgers
Oh boy, now we're getting to the good stuff. After a disastrous stint with the New York Jets, Rodgers is on the move again. Just over a week ago, Rodgers outlined two requirements for his future team: they must actively want him, and they must be good. Looking at the remaining QB-needy teams, not many fit these criteria: the Titans and Giants are the Titans and Giants, and anywhere else would probably require him to be a backup. There are some rumors that the Rams might trade Matt Stafford to the Jets to acquire him, and I'll be sure to let you know coming up just why I hate, nay, despise that proposition. For now, let's assume that doesn't happen. Obviously, the funny answer would be for him to replace Sam Darnold in Minnesota, following in the footsteps of his predecessor Brett Favre and probably fulfilling some prophecy somewhere. Barring some crazy, out-of-left-field developments, though, I don't see anyone other than JJ McCarthy starting for the Vikings, so that's off the table. This was far and away the most difficult prediction to make thus far, but I think he ends up with the Tennessee Titans. I know not even five sentences ago did I claim that the Titans didn't fit Aaron's requirements, but that's only provided he has any leverage in the decision. In this case, he doesn't have all that much. He's 41 years old, entering the twilight of his career, and still wants a shot at competing. I don't feel many teams will be willing to give him the time of day, and the Titans only do because they're that desperate. The Will Levis experiment is all but over and Tennessee might have to wait until the 2026 draft to find their quarterback of the future. That leaves a gap for the 2025 season that Rodgers can theoretically fill. Davante might come with him, and the Titans do have the cap space to make that happen. Of course, this all goes out the window if Sanders or Ward go first overall instead of Travis Hunter, but I don't see that happening. In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if Rodgers called it quits after this season. If that's the case, then what a career it has been.
Final Prediction: Signs with Tennessee on one-year, $20 million deal.
Matt Stafford
The last quarterback I will be discussing was one that I found shocking and frankly, I'm still confused as to why this is even something to consider. About a week ago, a report came out stating that the Los Angeles Rams had given Stafford permission to seek a trade. Following that report, rumors have transpired over the past week that talks with teams like the Raiders and Giants were ramping up. Per Bleacher Report, head coach Sean McVay told reporters, “How do you continuously as a head coach look at the short term and the long term and be able to figure out what does that really look like?” And it is not hyperbole when I tell you, dear reader, that I was utterly flabbergasted at these developments. When I look at the Los Angeles Rams, I see a very strong team with an open championship window, and the only reason they didn't win it this past year was because they ran into the eventual champion, the Eagles, along the way. They have one of the most complete rosters in the league with very, very few weaknesses: cornerback and interior o-line, and maybe wide receiver, but that's it. Stafford is still playing at a Pro-Bowl caliber, even as he enters his 17th season. Not only that, but the Rams would need to get significant compensation in a potential trade that would benefit them now. This must include a way to either stay stable, or improve, at the QB position. I can guarantee you that this cannot be done by way of a trade with the Raiders or Giants, unless their 2025 first-rounder is included. And even then, you can't guarantee the guy you want will be there, or that he will be a stable player. But do you know how the Rams can stay stable at quarterback? JOHN MATTHEW STAFFORD! It almost makes me angry that I have to lay all of this out in such a manner, as if a proven quarterback in a great position deserves to be on the trade block. Bottom line: Stafford's not going anywhere. Maybe his contract will get restructured or something, who knows? But he's staying. Full stop.
Final Prediction: No trade, stays with Los Angeles.
Final Note: Of course, an hour after I finish writing Matt Stafford's section it comes out that he is indeed staying with the Rams, and on a restructured contract to boot. Perfect timing, NFL, just perfect. Laughable, even. I must say I'm very glad this all turned out the way it did because otherwise that whole section is just me being way too confidently wrong. Never punished.
