– By Joey Bonadonna (@JoeyBonadonna)

Picture Credit: Krissy Birdsall

Ladies and gentlemen, we are back. The 3rd annual “Joey Bonadonna Big Ten Men’s Basketball Preseason Standings Predictions” are here and we may be headed for one of the most pandemonium-filled seasons yet. With four new programs entering the conference, new coaches hired and a chaotic transfer portal window changing the makeup of several teams, we seem to have no idea of what the Big Ten will look like in 2024-25.

But fear not, everyone. I am here to provide much-needed clarity on what you need to know about Big Ten basketball. We saw incredible improvement last year as we got one spot correct (Wisconsin placing 5th in the B1G), up from zero in 2022-23. Let’s try to aim for two this season!

Taking into account the preseason media polls via the Columbus Dispatch and Indianapolis Star, as well as the KenPom H.U.M.A.N. Poll, we will dive into what will 100% be happening in the Big Ten this season. In a conference where no one seems to be bad enough to deserve last nor good enough to finish first, we’re in for an interesting season in the Big Ten.

18: Minnesota (18th in media poll, 18th in KenPom poll)

Finishing last for the second year in a row in my preseason predictions are the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Gophers exceeded my expectations by finishing 10th in the standings last season, but a LOT of turnover happened over the offseason for Ben Johnson’s bunch. They were able to retain Dawson Garcia, who is the leading returning scorer in the Big Ten, and Mike Mitchell, who started in all 32 of his appearances last season. Overall, however, not much production returns. Freshman phenom Cam Christie made a late decision to enter the NBA Draft. The Gophers were also hit hard by the portal losing four other players who registered 15+ minutes per game: Elijah Hawkins to Texas Tech, Pharrel Payne to Texas A&M, Joshua Ola-Joseph to Cal and Braedon Carrington to Tulsa. Chances are if you’re thinking of a guy who contributed for the Gophers last year, he’s not there anymore. Another year with a tough hand dealt for Goldy, but Johnson had to hit the portal hard to fill the holes left by those departed. Guard and Minneapolis native Lu’Cye Patterson transfers in from Charlotte after earning All-AAC honors in 2023-24. Patterson drove the bus offensively for a 49ers team that finished 3rd in the conference last year and will likely continue to lead the backcourt for the Gophers. Femi Odukale, no stranger to the portal, is making the fourth stop of his career in Minneapolis, after time at Pitt, Seton Hall and New Mexico State. Frank Mitchell comes in from Canisius, after finishing fourth in the nation in rebounding with 11.6 per game. The issue in the new-look starting lineup is their shooting upside, outside of Mike Mitchell who is a career 41.3 percent shooter from deep. The next best shooter from a season ago is Oregon transfer Brennan Rigsby, who was a volume shooter off the bench for the Ducks. He will likely have to play a similar role for Minnesota. The Gophers rounded out their roster this summer with the addition of Toledo transfer Tyler Cochran, who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year a season ago. Entering his sixth season of college basketball, Cochran is a nuisance in the passing lanes and can take a fair amount of pressure on the other end of the floor for the rest of the backcourt. He was also one of the top offensive options for a Toledo team that won a MAC regular season title. Despite placing Minnesota last for the second season in a row, I have more hope for them than I felt a season ago. There are interesting pieces here for the Gophers that bring a great deal of experience to the table. On paper, this doesn’t feel like a team that should finish last but the question is if these guys can keep their production consistent after making the jump to the Big Ten.

17: Penn State (17th in media poll, 17th in KenPom poll)

The Penn State brand of basketball is certainly something. It’s not the brand of basketball I’d want my team to play, but I dread playing against it too. Head coach Mike Rhoades has a system heading into Year 2 in Happy Valley and it largely revolves around the guy he leaned on at VCU. 2023-24 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Ace Baldwin will have to make the world go ‘round for the Nittany Lions this season for the Nittany Lions to have a fighting chance. He can put pressure on any opposing guard and still lead the charge offensively, although not so efficiently, shooting under 40 percent from the field in 2023-24. Someone else will have to step up to take the workload off Baldwin and luckily, Penn State returns three other starters that showed flashes last season. Fellow VCU transfer wing Nick Kern is the next highest-leading scorer to return, with 8.7 points per game a season ago. However, he does not provide much spacing and much of his work is done at the rim. Zach Hicks does provide the spacing necessary from the 4-spot, shooting 37.4 percent from 3 a season ago. In the last 12 games of the season, he averaged 12.2 points per game, on a 41.3 clip from deep. D’Marco Dunn, who only started 12 games last year, will have to rise to a more significant role. In the games he did start, Dunn shot a blistering 46.4 percent from distance. The Nittany Lions lost Kanye Clary, who was dismissed from the program last season, and Qudus Wahab, so not much to write home about in the losses category. Penn State added a much needed seven-footer to the rotation with the addition of Northern Illinois transfer Yanic Konan Niederhauser. Niederhauser was not heavily utilized for the Huskies a season ago (only 19.6 minutes per game), but his defensive presence is notable, having averaged 2.1 blocks per game. Rhoades also bought low on several Power Five sophomore transfers, adding Eli Rice (Nebraska), Freddie Dilione (Tennessee) and Kachi Nzeh (Xavier). At 6’8, Rice adds a lengthy catch-and-shoot option off the bench. Dilione was a top-50 recruit in his class and Nzeh adds another physical presence in the post who can add some impact on the glass. The only thing that leads me to not pick this team last is the fact that they seem to have more consistency carrying over from last season than Minnesota. Overall though, this team’s fate lies in the hands of Baldwin. This team is all about putting pressure on teams defensively and finding a way to get a bucket when they need it. If they can improve their efficiency inside and keep their defensive identity, they could find themselves higher on the list by the end of the year.

16: Washington (15th in media poll, 16th in KenPom poll)

One of the brand new programs in the conference comes in with a brand new head coach. After taking Utah State to the NCAA Tournament in his one season of tenure, Danny Sprinkle is off to his third school in as many years, taking on the challenge of resurrecting a Washington basketball program that has not been to the dance since 2019. The only player Sprinkle brought with him is a pretty good one in defending Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor, who has been with him since his time at Montana State. Osobor took a lucrative NIL deal to follow to Seattle, with reports of a $2 million agreement in place. Such is life in college basketball in today’s day and age. Only two players return to Washington from last year: big men Franck Kepnang and Wilhelm Breidenbach. Kepnang, who has struggled to recover from an ACL tear, provides a spark of energy whenever he is on the floor, both as a shot blocker and a threat from the dunker spot. I am really intrigued to see how he progresses with a guy like Osobor on the other block. Breidenbach played in all 32 games for the Huskies in 2023-24. Sprinkle had to attack the portal hard and he brought in some interesting pieces for his inaugural team in Seattle, particularly in the backcourt. Fifth-year senior and Butler transfer DJ Davis figures to be the immediate sparkplug that Washington is looking for in the backcourt. He’ll look to get back to the efficiency numbers he had at UC-Irvine, where he shot 40.2 percent from deep in 2022-23. Washington added two more big guards in Mekhi Mason (Rice) and Tyree Ihenacho (North Dakota). Mason, a junior, has started in every game he has played since he arrived in Houston as a freshman, while Ihenacho has had a more complex journey during his college basketball career, starting at North Dakota, transferring to James Madison for two years, before returning to Grand Forks. There are some freshmen in the mix that may have an impact early for Washington, notably four-star guard Zoom Diallo. A native of Tacoma, Diallo had been committed to the Huskies under Mike Hopkins and Sprinkle was able to keep that commitment through the coaching change. In a largely veteran-laden backcourt, he’s still emerging as a potential option for the Huskies. In the frontcourt, more transfers will have to lead the charge for the Huskies alongside Osobor. Chris Conway was part of a tag-team duo with Trey Townsend in the post for an Oakland team that knocked off Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament a season ago. Tyler Harris makes the move up north from Portland where he put together a solid freshman campaign for the Pilots that earned him All-WCC Freshman Team honors. Can these players continue to make progress on their careers in the Big Ten? That is a pretty hard assumption to work under with so much change going on in the program. I think Danny Sprinkle is a very good basketball coach and Great Osobor is not a bad star player to have, but there is so much uncertainty here that I’m not confident in picking the Huskies higher than 16th.

15: Maryland (10th in media poll, 12th in KenPom poll)

I was a tad high on the Terps a season ago. I bit hard on their upside and by the end of the year, it seemed like the only player who lived up to the expectations was Jahmir Young. Now, he’s graduated along with Donta Scott who were the two big contributors from a season ago. I’ll be honest. I have no feel for this team right now. I would not be surprised if they did extremely well or extremely poorly. But overall, there are pieces that make this team intriguing. Kevin Willard has a couple of big returning pieces rise to the top, starting with Julian Reese returning for his senior season. He’s not a floor spacer but Maryland has never needed him to be one. He’s a walking double-double and is an elite rim protector in this league. Another returner is DeShawn Harris-Smith who came into his freshman campaign with high hopes. He started 30 games and made the Big Ten All-Freshman team but his numbers did not quite reflect what was expected of him. He will need to take a sophomore leap to help elevate this Terps squad. Ja’Kobi Gillespie from Belmont was one of the most sought after mid-major transfers of this past cycle and it’s easy to see why. He’s an all-Missouri Valley defensive team honoree and was an incredibly efficient scorer as the number one option for the Bruins last season. Do I think he’s as good as Young? No. However, this is an incredibly solid pickup to replace him. Another shooter came in via the portal with South Florida transfer Selton Miguel, who only started five games a season ago for the Bulls but led the team in shots per game. He shot 39 percent from deep and adds a level of floor spacing this team desperately needs. The real talk of the town for the Terrapins has been five-star freshman center Derik Queen. He figures to be a strong presence on the glass alongside Reese down low, but I’m not a fan of his ability as a scorer or defender just yet. That will have to be developed quickly to become a real impact player at the collegiate level. The individual pieces are here for Maryland but I am just not a fan of how it all comes together. It could be another long season in College Park, but hey, at least they get to make the Big Ten Tournament.

14: Nebraska (T-12th in media poll, 14th in KenPom poll)

For better or for worse, I was rightfully high on Nebraska last year. Keisei Tominaga was a true difference maker for this team a season ago and the complementary acts of guys like Rienk Mast, Josiah Allick and Jamarques Lawrence were a huge reason as to why Nebraska was the Cinderella story of the Big Ten last year. I loved watching every minute of it (except when Wisconsin blew a double-digit lead in the second half in Lincoln for the second year in a row.) It’s time to come back down to planet Earth when it comes to Nebrasketball. This team isn’t the same as it was last year. Tominaga and Allick graduated, Lawrence went portaling and Mast is out for the year with an injury. However, not all is lost for the Huskers. Brice Williams is back for his second year in a Nebraska uniform, as the 8th-leading returning scorer in the Big Ten. He will have to make a big step up to keep their momentum going, along with Juwan Gary, who finally got back to full health in 2023-24. The rest of the roster is interesting. The first names that jump off the page are guys like Berke Buyuktuncel, Gavin Griffiths and Connor Essegian (#oldfriendalert), all of whom were in need of a change in scenery from their previous stops. If they are able to get closer to their expectations from a season ago, Nebraska could be a dangerous team to watch. Ahron Ulis, who I mentioned in last year’s issue, is finally eligible after his gambling suspension during his time at Iowa. The likely figure at point for the Huskers, though, is Utah transfer Rollie Worster. After averaging 5.5 assists per game a season ago in the PAC-12 (RIP), he is expected to be a strong distributor for the offense. Who is expected to replace Rienk Mast’s production from the big-man spot? Look no further than NDSU transfer Andrew Morgan, who shot 36.4 percent from deep and should be able to stretch the floor similarly. Another transfer down low comes from one of the new Big Ten Schools in Braxton Meah. Meah figures to start for the Huskers, possibly in name only, but he is incredibly efficient inside, coming off a season where he shot 77 percent from the field. He’s not as much of a floor spacer as Morgan, but he is a capable starter. Overall, Fred Hoiberg has traditionally had to hit the portal hard over his time at Nebraska, but he’s banking hard on those reclamations from around the conference to bounce back to expected form. I’m treading lightly on the Huskers. The upside is there, but I don’t like them as much as I did last year.

13: Northwestern: (16th in media poll, 15th in KenPom poll)

The reign of war criminal Boo Buie is over in Evanston. Rejoice and be glad. However, even though Northwestern lost him, I think they’re being underrated by the polls, because they still bring back a large part of their core. They return the highest percentage of minutes (66%) from a season ago in the conference. Chris Collins has put together a career renaissance over the last two seasons, giving the Wildcats a tournament win in consecutive years for the first time… ever? Wait, he brought them to the tournament in consecutive years for the first time ever, period? It does not get talked about how big of a turnaround he’s put together here for Northwestern. He returns three regular starters from a season ago: Brooks Barnhizer, who was an All-Big Ten and All-Defense honoree, Ty Berry, who shot 43.3 percent from three, and Matthew Nicholson, who was one of the most efficient players at the rim last year (granted he only took 3.5 shots per game, but efficiency is efficiency). The issue that has plagued the Wildcats as of late is the injury bug. Both Nicholson and Berry missed significant time last year. Northwestern was able to endure it all en route to a 3rd-place finish in the conference, but can you get away with health problems after losing Buie this year? Also, who replaces him this year? Obviously, Barnhizer is the guy who will likely take over as the scorer for this team, but the point guard position will turn to Fairfield transfer Jalen Leach. He averaged 16/4/3 a season ago for the Stags, was an incredibly efficient scorer and was a pest defensively, en route to first team all-MAAC honors. Another option at point guard could be true freshman KJ Windham. Out of Indianapolis, Windham comes in as just a composite three-star prospect, but took a hefty workload during the team’s trip overseas this summer with Barnhizer, Berry and Nicholson all not playing for the Wildcats. He could figure to carve a nice role for himself in his first year in Evanston. The other transfer Collins went out to get was big man Keenan Fitzmorris from Stony Brook. I’m not sure how much impact he will have out of the gate, but I can imagine having another seven-footer behind Matthew Nicholson will only help their case. If you’re looking for an under-the-radar guy out of this Northwestern rotation, take a peek at Justin Mullins. He played sparingly in his first season as a Wildcat, but his athleticism and ability to score is apparent from his freshman year at Denver. Overall, this team is always a surprise and always has guys step up when they need them most. I would not be shocked to see them crack the top ten in the B1G at the end of the season, but it’s fair to question if they can adjust to life after Boo Buie.

12: USC (14th in media poll, 13th in KenPom poll)

Another new program to the Big Ten, another new coach, another completely new roster. The USC Trojans are entering Year 1 in the Eric Musselmann era, as part of one of the most wild coaching carousel threads in recent memory, kickstarted by Andy Enfield leaving for SMU. Much like the other rosters involved in said thread, USC essentially has had to start from scratch. It’s no secret for the Trojans. There is no shortage of guys that can score buckets. Nine of their eleven players that played college basketball last season averaged at least 11.6 points per game at their last stop. The issue now is they are all on the same team and there’s only one ball and one hoop on the floor at a time. So there are questions about who takes on the alpha scoring role for this team. Desmond Claude from Xavier is a good candidate for that role, after averaging 16.6 points per game as a sophomore. Another could be Terrance Williams from Michigan, coming off a year where he averaged 12.4 points per game and shot 39.7 percent from 3. Chibuzo Agbo averaged 13.7 points at Boise State last year with a 40.9 percent clip from deep. Saint Thomas averaged almost 20 and 10 at Northern Colorado and earned All-Big Sky honors last season. You could go on and on about the stats these guys racked up a season ago. There is no shortage of options for this unit. USC has the ability to run five guys out on the floor 6 ‘6 or taller and their length and athleticism will be tough to stop for smaller teams. However, the one thing they don’t possess is depth at the big man spot. The tallest players on this team are at 6 ‘10: UMass transfer and All-Atlantic 10 honoree Josh Cohen and Harrison Hornery, the only returning player from last year’s squad. This will be an issue against the centers that the Big Ten possesses. USC has some really great players that will be tough to defend. However, I think this USC team still is a work in progress. They could be a thorn in the side of many teams down the stretch, but they have a ways to go to get there. Still, the fact that a team of this caliber in the bottom half of the conference goes to show the depth the Big Ten has this year.

11: Rutgers (7th in media poll, 9th in KenPom poll)

This perhaps may be the most controversial preview of them all but I am not high on Rutgers at all this season. Last year, I said the Scarlet Knights were in a bit of a gap year waiting for the arrival of highly-touted recruits Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Well, they’re here now and I don’t think Steve Pikiell did a good enough job building around them. Let’s talk about those freshmen first. Harper, the top combo guard in the class of 2024, will have to serve as this team’s primary creator. That’s a position he can most certainly thrive in. I think his size and confidence will serve him well in being able to get to the rim. He’s an all-around player that Rutgers may be able to find an offensive rhythm behind. Bailey, the top small forward in the class of 2024, will have to serve as the floor-spacer in the frontcourt. He has great size for his position at 6’9 and can score in all types of ways. These are two elite players that will be a treat to watch all year in college basketball. Sounds great, right? Not so fast, my friend. The only way I can describe the rest of Rutgers roster: think of the foghorn sound effect that played in SpongeBob when they’d show those really detailed disgusting-looking frames. It’s not pretty, folks. Yet, somehow, this team was ranked in the top 25 of the AP preseason poll. So, I’m kind of forced to give them the benefit of the doubt. Let’s talk more about the rest of that roster. There are only three returners from a roster that most notably lost Clifford Omoruyi as their defensive anchor in the paint. One is junior center Emmanuel Ogbole, who is expected to take a much larger role from his 8.1 minutes per game a season ago. The other two returners, Jamichael Davis and Jeremiah Williams, will be viable options in the backcourt after a few breakout performances from a season ago. Rutgers brought in a few transfers as well in Jordan Derkack from Merrimack and Tyson Acuff from Eastern Michigan. There’s one issue with all these guys. They cannot shoot. Of those five I just mentioned, the highest percentage from deep from last year is Acuff’s 29.2. They’re also going to really struggle with the length this conference possesses, especially on the boards. I just do not see it with this Rutgers team. They’ve always been able to succeed without an offense under Pikiell, yet I think Harper and Bailey are going to have to play like the elite players they are right away for them to have a chance in this conference. There is no room for error and that is a lot of pressure to put on these two right away. Will I likely have to eat my words on this? Yes. I’m willing to stand by it though.

10: Iowa (11th in media poll, 11th in KenPom poll)

The McCaffery family business is slowly dissipating, but the patriarch Fran McCaffery has a solid bunch in Iowa City this season. The Hawkeyes return perhaps the best volume shooter in the conference in Payton Sandfort who flirted with the draft waters, before deciding to return. They also return all-freshman center Owen Freeman, who you should have bought stock in a long time ago. Add in Josh Dix, another wing who can stretch the floor, and Iowa has one of the best returning trios in the Big Ten. The questions are where they need to replace production from a season ago. Iowa lost two guys from last season who started every game: guard Tony Perkins who made the move to Mizzou and forward Ben Krikke who was in his final season of college basketball. Fran also lost his son Patrick McCaffery to the portal, where he heads to Butler, which may or may not be in the same city where two certain former Iowa basketball players currently hold employment. I wonder who those two could be. Anyhow, who steps up in these spots for the Hawkeyes? Let’s start at point guard, where McCaffery has his pick between a portal get and a returning underclassman. Drew Thelwell comes in from Morehead State, where he was part of two Ohio Valley regular season championship squads, including the most recent season where the Eagles made the trip to the NCAA Tournament and fell to Illinois in the first round. Thelwell was a steady hand at point guard for both of those squads and is coming off a season where he distributed the rock at a very high rate. This would bode well for getting the ball in your playmakers’ hands. The other option comes in Freeman’s high school teammate from Moline, Brock Harding, who played in all 34 games for Iowa last season. He lacks the talent and experience of Thelwell, but could be a big factor in the future of the program. The options down low reflect the same as point guard, but could prove to be a more difficult choice. The portal addition comes in the form of sophomore Seydou Traore from Manhattan, where he nearly averaged a double-double and was named to the MAAC All-Freshman team. Does McCaffery rely on his experience, or does he go with the top-100 ranked freshman Cooper Koch from Peoria, Illinois? Either way, both should play significant roles for this Iowa squad. The Hawkeyes are a rinse-and-repeat program, where they continually have the talent to play well, but their lack of a defensive identity sets them back when the shots aren’t falling. However, I like this team to make the tournament and I think they will be a tough squad to face down the stretch of the season. Can they get the stop when they need it most?

9: Wisconsin (T-12th in media poll, 10th in KenPom poll)

Here lie our beloved Badgers. They didn’t hear no bell. After a tough offseason, they managed their way into the top half in the conference in my preseason rankings. Many will say, “But, Joey, you’re being biased.” Yes, I am. Here’s why: I don’t care. Jokes aside, I think this team has a higher upside than people think and it largely revolves around the breakout of sophomore John Blackwell, who has drawn comparisons this offseason to former Big Ten Player of the Year Johnny Davis and the form he stepped into going into his sophomore campaign. With the departures of Tyler Wahl, AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn, the Badgers need a new alpha at the helm. Or do they? Many of the issues offensively last season came when the ball didn’t move enough and ended with an ill-advised shot late on the clock. With the options that Wisconsin has on offense this season, things may be able to move more fluidly. Max Klesmit, one of the other returning guards for the Badgers, has the capability to catch fire offensively for long stretches. In the frontcourt, I still believe in Steven Crowl. One of the best rebounders and shooting big men in the conference, Crowl will be able to benefit from more spacing that Tyler Wahl did not provide him the last three seasons. I expect to see him be more aggressive at the rim and become an even bigger offensive threat. Who is providing that spacing? There’s a few options at play. Returning is sophomore Nolan Winter, who was a threat to shoot it last season, but needed to improve as a thumper inside. Two other forwards made the move to Madison via the portal. Xavier Amos, a Chicago native, makes the trip north from Northern Illinois, where he showed his ability as a floor spacer and as a help-side defender. John Tonje comes in as one of the most senior players in college basketball, playing in 130 games in his career. In 2022-23, he was nearly a 15-point scorer at Colorado State and flashes the athleticism and shooting Wisconsin needs to replace Storr. The backcourt needs to replace a three-year starter who has been the emotional leader for the program for quite some time. Early reports out of camp are that Kamari McGee is that guy right now. After a standout freshman season at Green Bay in 2021-22, McGee has battled injuries and served in a reserve role the last two seasons. Now, the Racine native will have to take on a much bigger portion of the Wisconsin offense. There’s no question McGee has given the Badgers some big impact moments in the last two seasons, but can he make those plays in a 30-minute role? Wisconsin has a few other choices at point guard with Central Arkansas transfer Camren Hunter and highly-touted freshman Daniel Freitag, who is the highest-ranked recruit in the Greg Gard era. The Badgers will have time to sort out their lineup with a favorable non-conference schedule, but they cannot afford any major slip-ups. This is a program that has always overperformed their expectations, but you can get the sense that the fanbase is getting a little impatient with head coach Greg Gard. I don’t subscribe to that belief, but this is a really important season in terms of easing some pressure from folks outside the building. I think this team has the pieces and the depth to do so.

8: Ohio State (8th in media poll, 8th in KenPom poll)

The Buckeyes moved on from head coach Chris Holtmann last winter and interim Jake Diebler performed well enough in his audition to get the job. Now, it’s for real. Ohio State did a great job in building their roster via the portal and the expectation is that this team is ready to get back to the NCAA Tournament, after missing the previous two seasons. All-Big Ten honoree Bruce Thornton has been a staple in the lineup in Columbus for the past two seasons and nothing seems to be changing there. He will likely be the driving force for Ohio State this season. What has changed around him? A lot of new faces will make their way to the forefront. Meechie Johnson, who started his career as a Buckeye, returns after two seasons at South Carolina. Another guard that has garnered a lot of hype this offseason has been John Mobley, a top 50 freshman. These three guards could be the best backcourt tandem in the conference this season. The frontcourt also saw some major changes after Jamison Battle graduated. Micah Parrish was one of the defensive staples for a San Diego State squad that took the Mountain West by storm over the past two seasons. Former top-20 big men Sean Stewart from Duke and Aaron Bradshaw from Kentucky round out the post, with the Buckeyes banking hard on their potential. Neither played strong roles in their freshman seasons at their previous stops. My issue again with Ohio State is their shooting upside. They were an above average shooting team last year, but with the roster turnover, there seems to be a big drop-off from that mark. The Buckeyes added State transfer guard Ques Glover late in the summer, who has a track record of being able to shoot well, but I doubt they will have the minutes to get him in the lineup frequently. Look for this team to want to get to the rim early and often when you see them play. This team has an incredibly high floor, but their inability to shoot at a high level will limit their ceiling.

7: Michigan (9th in media poll, 7th in KenPom poll)

We sleep in “Dusty” May. The man who brought Florida Atlantic to a Final Four just two seasons ago moves to Ann Arbor, trying to get the Wolverines back to its previous success after a last-place finish in 2023-24. May got to work early in the portal, returning just three players from a season ago. The notable addition, Vlad Goldin, comes in from Boca Raton, who has been a double-double machine in the last few years, as well as an incredibly efficient finisher. Another transfer big comes over from the Ivy League in Danny Wolf from Yale. While not as efficient, Wolf possesses the ability to stretch the floor and brings another towering paint presence to pair with Goldin. May also has Alabama transfer Sam Walters as an option in the frontcourt as the 6 ’10 sophomore shot 39.4 percent from deep for a team that made the Final Four last season. The perimeter also saw an influx of transfers, including Tre Donaldson from Auburn, Rubin Jones from North Texas and Roddy Gayle from rival Ohio State. All three could rotate in the guard spots in the lineup and have impacted a winning culture at their previous stops. The main man who returns for Michigan is Nimari Burnett, who is at the same school for the first time in his college career after previously transferring from Texas Tech and Alabama. Burnett started all 32 games last season for the Wolverines, but his season reflected the team’s success as he shot under 40 percent from the field and under 10 points per game. Can the Wolverines rely on him to take another step up? Overall, this team’s floor seems pretty high with May now at the helm, but it may be a while before this team is contending for a conference title. They should be pretty confident in their tournament chances with the length and defensive prowess they possess.

6: Illinois (4th in media poll, 2nd in KenPom poll)

The defending B1G Tournament champions lost a lot and reloaded with some talented players out of the portal and in their freshman class. What’s new under Brad Underwood? If I had to make an early pick for 2025-26 B1G champions, Illinois would be my front-runner, but as for 2024-25, I have a few gripes with the lack of college experience on this team. Kylan Boswell highlights the haul from the transfer portal after a tough sophomore season with Arizona. He struggled with shot selection and was inefficient from the field. However, if anyone can reel him in, it’s Brad Underwood. Senior forward Ben Humrichous moves from Evansville after his first year playing Division I basketball. Tre White from Louisville and Carey Booth from Notre Dame round out the impact players from the transfer class, who will both provide depth in the frontcourt. The two additions most people are talking about in Champaign come from overseas. Kasparas Jakucionis from Lithuania spent time playing in Spain and saw great success with Barcelona’s U19 squad. He offers versatility up and down the lineup. Tomislav Ivisic, who was just recently granted eligibility, gives Illinois a true seven-footer in their lineup with scoring ability from multiple levels. The Illini also welcome an incredibly talented freshman class. Morez Johnson, who was previously the highest-ranked recruit in Illinois history, is yet another switchable frontcourt option in the rotation. Johnson is only trumped by five-star Will Riley who committed this past spring and reclassified to the class of 2025. He has some physical maturation to go through at this stage in his career, but he is no doubt talented. Again, I get the vibes that things could be “a year away” for this squad. There is plenty of upside here and Underwood has proven his chops as one of the top coaches in the conference, but there is too much change for Illinois to put them as a slam-dunk contender this year.

5: Michigan State (5th in media poll, 3rd in KenPom poll) T

he Spartans were first in my rankings last season. They failed to meet those expectations. So we’ll rein things in a little bit. I think the top five is well within reach, despite losing four starters from a season ago. Regardless of what’s been lost, Tom Izzo runs a model of consistency in East Lansing, which is why I’m prone to pick MSU over Illinois.. Michigan State has done great work on the recruiting front over the past few cycles and it should pay dividends this season. The key word here is should. The rotation last year seemed to favor Michigan State’s seniority over the talent that existed, but now the young guns have a clear path to take the helm. For example, Xavier Booker, who averaged just under ten minutes a game last season, will have to man the five spot heading into 2024. He’ll have to buy in on the defensive side of the ball, as that’s where he struggled most in his freshman season, but his upside is incredibly intriguing. Jeremy Fears only averaged 15 minutes per game before missing the rest of the season due to injuries sustained in a shooting in December. Personally, I am really excited to see Fears take on a big role in this offense. I think he can be an incredible distributor at the point and will be a pest of an on-ball defender. Tre Holloman also returns looking poised for a larger role in the rotation. His ability to shoot from deep will allow him to carve out a nice role for himself on this squad. Another plus shooter in the lineup is Jaden Akins who has been a staple in the rotation. The four spot is where this team could hinge on and it depends on where Izzo places his values. Does he want a taller player to match up better defensively or does he want a shooter to put next to Booker? If it’s the latter, look no further than former future Badger Frankie Fidler. I truly believe Fidler could do wonders for the Spartans offensively as he is a threat to score at all three levels. However, knowing Tom Izzo, he’ll roll with Jaxon Kohler or Coen Carr even if they offer no spacing for his star center. Either way, I have trust that he can figure this rotation out with the internal development track record he has. There’s still too much talent here for this team to fail miserably, but they need to improve their offensive identity without sacrificing too much defensively.

4: Oregon (6th in media poll, 6th in KenPom poll)

The Ducks are welcomed into a new conference and are prepared to go to war with a new superstar: sophomore guard Jackson Shelstad. I believe Shelstad is the absolute truth and he could be my pick for B1G Player of the Year when all is said and done. An undersized guard wearing the number 3 at Oregon. Who could this remind me of? Not just that, but Dana Altman did a great job of adding pieces that supplement what returns to the lineup well. First, Keeshawn Barthelemy and Nate Bittle both return from injuries that caused them both to miss serious time last year. They will both be welcome pieces to the rotation, as Barthelemy can off-set the few minutes Shelstad will spend off the floor and Bittle will likely return to his role as starting center where he looked to have a breakout campaign in the cards in 2023-24. Also returning is Jadrian Tracey who is another complementary playmaking piece in the rotation. Now the question remains of who replaces N’Faly Dante and Jermaine Couisnard. Both played considerable roles on a team that was a shot away from making it to the second weekend eight months ago. Down low, let’s start with Brandon Angel who comes from former PAC-12 rival Stanford. The first thing that jumps off the page for Angel is his ability to stretch the floor from the four spot. He doesn’t provide the height or physicality of a Dante, but his shot-making potential makes him an easy candidate to support Shelstad’s scoring output. Altman will have to find another way to maximize the defensive identity of this squad, but to round out the backcourt, he has a few options. First, Ra’Heim Moss is coming off an incredible run at Toledo where he earned first team All-MAC and all-defensive team honors a season ago. He shows the ability to stuff the stat sheet in scoring, rebounding, facilitating and defending. Another option is likely to be TJ Bamba from Villanova. After starting all 33 games for the Wildcats last season, Bamba took a step back from the role he had at Washington State in the previous three years. Still, that may be the role he’s best fit for if he’s playing alongside a dominant scorer like Shelstad. Overall, the Ducks have been plagued by the injury bug the past few seasons and have prevented them from showing their full potential on the floor together. What if they can stay healthy? With a superstar in the making leading the charge, I think the sky’s the limit for this Oregon squad this season.

3: Indiana (2nd in media poll, 5th in KenPom poll)

The Hoosiers are entering a put up or shut up year with fourth-year head coach Mike Woodson. Indiana has failed to truly meet its expectations during his tenure as head coach and now is the time to make a statement. After some big-time moves in the portal, things are starting to look up in Bloomington. But, this program has been in this position before. It’s time to start seeing results. Mackenzie Mgbako highlights the returners for this group after a largely successful freshman campaign. Malik Reneau and Trey Galloway also return with a little more experience under their belt. We know that those three will likely control the two through four spots in the starting lineup and we know what they bring to the table. All three are capable but limited shooters and can bring a spark of athleticism to the floor. The new faces however sit at point guard and center. Starting down low, the Hoosiers have run with multiple different body types on the block. In 2022-23, Trayce Jackson-Davis was running the show from just his 6’9 frame. Last season, it was a taller, slender Kel’el Ware. Now, how about a bruiser in Oumar Ballo from Arizona. Ballo has been one of the top centers in the country over the past two seasons and now brings his rim efficiency and all-defensive abilities to Assembly Hall. At point guard, two major additions were made from the portal. First, Myles Rice was an absolute star for Washington State a year ago, leading the Cougars to the NCAA Tournament and earning PAC-12 Freshman of the Year honors in a tight race with the aforementioned Jackson Shelstad. He will look to lead the point for the Hoosiers this season, but Woodson wasn’t done yet in the portal. He also added sophomore guard Kanaan Carlyle from Stanford. Like Rice, he brings another strong option to handle the rock and possesses solid on-ball defense as well. Overall, the concern for this Indiana team has to be its shotmaking ability. That’s the one struggle Rice and Carlyle had in their freshman seasons and Ballo is not the floor spacer that Ware was. Maybe Illinois transfer and Indiana native Luke Goode can help solve that problem. He doesn’t bring much else to the floor than shooting, so it may be tough to see him on the floor consistently outside of situational lineups. Overall, the expectations as always are high for this program. With the offseason that just went down for the Hoosiers, fans will get restless if they aren’t met. I think Woodson has done a good job to put the pieces in place for this season. They just need to go to work.

2: UCLA (3rd in media poll, 4th in KenPom poll)

The fourth and final newcomer to the Big Ten is another storied program that has gone through interesting times the past few seasons. After making three straight Sweet Sixteens, the Bruins tripped and fell flat on their face in their final season in the PAC-12. Mick Cronin decided to reload using the international route and things just could not come together for UCLA. Now, this team might have something after picking up some real impact guys from the portal. Dylan Andrews highlights the returners after taking a larger role in his sophomore season. While he didn’t have the most efficient season, I expect him to come into form with the group he has around him now. Sebastian Mack is the other returning guard who was a large piece of the backcourt a season ago. The answer for UCLA’s success this season lies in their frontcourt however. I am a big fan of the pickup of Kobe Johnson from crosstown rival USC. Johnson is a lockdown defender who will be a great culture fit for Cronin’s group. I was also a big fan of William Kyle who won the Summit League Defensive Player of the Year award and was an incredibly athletic finisher at the rim for South Dakota State. Tyler Bilodeau joins from another old PAC-12 rival in Oregon State where he averaged 14 points and six rebounds a game. The bench unit is also filled with guys who have been in need of a fresh start in a new role. Lazar Stefanovic was a staple in the lineup for the Bruins last season, but he may be forced to take a backseat to Kobe Johnson because of the discrepancies defensively. However, I think Stefanovic will thrive in a bench scoring role, especially with his efficiency from deep. Aday Mara was another newcomer a season ago with high expectations. He struggled in the minutes he saw last season, but there are hopes he takes a sophomore leap. The lineup could really use his size if he is able to get into form. As for more transfers, how about Skyy Clark at his third program in three years? After stops at Illinois and Louisville, Clark moves to Westwood in search of stability. The issues are still there for this squad in terms of balancing an offensive and defensive identity, but the experience has taken a big jump from where it was last season. In a conference like this, that might be what you need to emerge as one of the teams to beat.

1: Purdue (1st in media poll, 1st in KenPom poll)

After two years of winning conference championships and not picking them to win the conference, I think I’ve learned my lesson. The Purdue Boilermakers are my 2024-25 Big Ten champions. With my luck, they’ll finish fifth, but this team is pretty clearly the consensus pick for the time being. First, let’s address the elephant in the room, or rather, the elephant-sized human being who is no longer in the room. Zach Edey is finally gone, which means we get to watch real basketball when Purdue plays for the first time in forever. Credit is due, Edey had an incredible two-year run in West Lafayette, but I am rather excited to see what the rest of this roster can do without him. Matt Painter acquired exactly zero transfers, which says a lot about his confidence in the roster as it sits right now. Braden Smith looks ready to take control of this team after a phenomenal first two years, earning preseason player of the year honors. Just three years ago, this Purdue team was one of the best in the country with Jaden Ivey at the helm and I think Smith can have an even better season than what Ivey was capable of in 2021-22. Fletcher Loyer continues his run at the two spot and while not as dominant as Smith, he is still an incredibly efficient shooter who will serve a great role in the offense. Trey Kaufmann-Renn will likely have to take the center spot, which is about a seven-inch decrease in size from Edey. TKR’s ability is notable though. After serving smaller roles in his first two seasons, I think he continues his efficient numbers into year 3 like the other aforementioned juniors. Watch for sophomore and former four-star recruit Myles Colvin to make a big jump as a sophomore as the minutes weren’t always available for him a season ago, but they sure should be in 2024-25. Painter always seems to have the seven-foot-plus guys in the back pocket, and this year he has two of them. Will Berg returns for his sophomore campaign at 7’2 and freshman Daniel Jacobsen enters college at 7’3. Ultimately, this is the same squad from a season ago minus Zach Edey. Whether the rest of the conference likes to admit it or not, that’s still a really good basketball team with a really good coach at the helm. Until someone else proves otherwise, this is the program to beat in the Big Ten.